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Incline Village Real Estate

Jeffrey Corman

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Fed Takes a Long Pass ~ March 22, 2019

by Jeffrey Corman
Not only did the Federal Reserve hold the fed funds rate unchanged at its current 2.25-2.50% range at the Tuesday and Wednesday meeting of its Open Markets Committee (FOMC), but it announced there would probably be no rate hikes at all this year.
 
In its post-meeting statement, the Fed cited slowing economic growth, particularly in household spending and business investment and lowered its forecast for economic growth in 2019 to 2.1%. It had predicted 2.3% growth as recently as December. Data released after the meeting shows that most members of the Committee now expect no rate hikes at all this year, one in 2020, and none again in 2021. Again, a sharp contrast with December when they were predicting two increases this year and one in 2020.
 
While the Fed's move usually impacts short term rates, the New York Timesreported the 10-year Treasury note, the issue most closely tied to mortgage rates, dropped sharply after the Fed announcement. The resulting yield, 2.54%, was the lowest since January 2018.
 
Fed Chairman Jerome H. Powell said he still expects the economy to grow at a solid pace, but since September it has been slowing somewhat more than expected.
    
Standing Up to Slowing Down
 
Even before the Fed announcement, CoreLogic's Ralph Mclaughlin wrote that mediocre construction reports, slowing price increases, disappointing home sales, and an aging economic cycle may be making homeowners and buyers fear that the roof of the housing market might cave in. Not so, he said, at least not pricewise, and provided several reasons why housing still has a bright future--maybe 20 years or more of it.
 
First, housing prices usually fare well even when the overall economy sours. They held up well in three of the last five recessions, dipping slightly by 1.9% in the 1991 recession and then, of course, plunging in 2008.
 
Second, we are in a very different supply environment, with record low inventories, only 15.7 available new and existing units per 1,000 homes, than what existed before the onset of the Great Recession when there was a massive run-up in inventory. This means that prices are unlikely to fall far, if at all, should there be a recession.
 
Add to that the huge backload of non-homeowning young Americans, which presents the potential for 32 million new households to be formed over the next 20 years. Consequently, a lot of housing units will be needed which, Mclaughlin says, should continue to put upward pressure on the housing market until at least 2040.

Weekly Incline Village Market Condition Report

by Jeffrey Corman

ncline Village, NV

Mon Mar 18 2019 
This week the median list price for Incline Village, NV is $1,695,000 with the market action index hovering around 24. This is less than last month's market action index of 26. Inventory has held steady at or around 29. Click here to stay informed with the Incline Village market!

Market Action Index

The Market Action Index answers the question "How's the Market?" by measuring the current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30 implies Seller's Market conditions. Below 30, conditions favor the buyer.

 Today
 Last Month
100024

Slight Buyer's Advantage

While prices have recently plateaued, this is a buyer’s market and the supply of homes listed has started growing relative to demand. This indicates that prices could easily resume a downward trend in conjunction with the MAI. Prices are unlikely to move significantly higher until there is a persistent upward shift in the MAI.

Real-Time Market Profile

Never miss important changes in the Incline Village market.
Median List Price
$1,695,000
Per Square Foot
$563
Days on Market
214
Price Decreased
17%
Price Increased
3%
Relisted
3%
Inventory
29
Median House Rent
$8,000
Most Expensive   $15,950,000
Least Expensive   $480,000
Market Action Index 
Slight Buyer's Advantage
24
Avg 7-DayAvg 90-DayMar 2016Aug 2016Dec 2016Apr 2017Aug 2017Dec 2017Apr 2018Aug 2018Dec 2018$1.2M$1.3M$1.4M$1.5M$1.6M$1.7M$1.8M
 

The market seems to have paused around this plateau. The Market Action Index is a good leading indicator for the durability of this trend.

Market Segments

Each segment below represents approximately 25% of the market ordered by price.

 

Weekly Incline Village Market Condition Report

by Jeffrey Corman

ncline Village, NV

Mon Mar 11 2019 
This week the median list price for Incline Village, NV is $1,672,500 with the market action index hovering around 24. This is less than last month's market action index of 27. Inventory has held steady at or around 30. Click here to stay informed with the Incline Village market!

Market Action Index

The Market Action Index answers the question "How's the Market?" by measuring the current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30 implies Seller's Market conditions. Below 30, conditions favor the buyer.

 Today
 Last Month
100024

Slight Buyer's Advantage

The Market Action Index has been trending lower for several weeks while prices have remained relatively stable. If inventory continues to grow relative to demand however, it is likely that we will see downward pressure on pricing.

Real-Time Market Profile

Never miss important changes in the Incline Village market.
Median List Price
$1,672,500
Per Square Foot
$562
Days on Market
201
Price Decreased
13%
Price Increased
3%
Relisted
3%
Inventory
30
Median House Rent
$8,000
Most Expensive   $15,950,000
Least Expensive   $480,000
Market Action Index 
Slight Buyer's Advantage
24
Avg 7-DayAvg 90-DayMar 2016Aug 2016Dec 2016Apr 2017Aug 2017Dec 2017Apr 2018Aug 2018Dec 2018$1.2M$1.3M$1.4M$1.5M$1.6M$1.7M$1.8M
 

The market seems to have paused around this plateau. The Market Action Index is a good leading indicator for the durability of this trend.

Market Segments

Each segment below represents approximately 25% of the market ordered by price.

 

Weekly Incline Village Market Condition Report

by Jeffrey Corman

Incline Village, NV

Wed Mar 06 2019 
This week the median list price for Incline Village, NV is $1,745,000 with the market action index hovering around 26. This is about the same as last month's market action index of 26. Inventory has held steady at or around 32. Click here to stay informed with the Incline Village market!

Market Action Index

The Market Action Index answers the question "How's the Market?" by measuring the current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30 implies Seller's Market conditions. Below 30, conditions favor the buyer.

 Today
 Last Month
100026

Slight Buyer's Advantage

Home sales have begun exceeding new inventory. This is a Buyer’s market so prices are not yet moving higher as excess inventory is consumed. If the tightening continues and the market moves into the Seller’s zone, we may see upward pressure on pricing.

Real-Time Market Profile

Never miss important changes in the Incline Village market.
Median List Price
$1,745,000
Per Square Foot
$583
Days on Market
201
Price Decreased
16%
Price Increased
3%
Relisted
3%
Inventory
32
Median House Rent
$8,000
Most Expensive   $15,950,000
Least Expensive   $480,000
Market Action Index 
Slight Buyer's Advantage
26
Avg 7-DayAvg 90-DayMar 2016Jul 2016Nov 2016Mar 2017Jul 2017Nov 2017Mar 2018Jul 2018Nov 2018Mar 2019$1.2M$1.3M$1.4M$1.5M$1.6M$1.7M$1.8M
 

The market seems to have paused around this plateau. The Market Action Index is a good leading indicator for the durability of this trend.

Market Segments

Each segment below represents approximately 25% of the market ordered by price.

New-home sales up slightly

by Jeffrey Corman

 

New-home sales in the U.S. rose 3.7 percent in December, marking the third month of growth, according to the latest residential sales report from the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).

But while single-family home sales have been rising since the fall, there were still fewer of them than there were a year ago. In total, 621,000 new units were sold in December, a 2.4 percent decline from the year prior (636,000 in December 2017).

Courtesy of U.S. Census Bureau.

Across the country, the average home sold for $377,000 while the median sales price was $318,600. The increased sales price is just slowly starting to catch up to the shortfall that occurred in mid-2018 — caused, in part, by growing home values and mortgage rates.

Regionally, the Midwest saw the steepest decline in the number of sales, with 15.3 percent fewer homes sold in December 2018 than in November.

The Northeast, on the other hand, saw a major spike. After November’s lull, 44.8 percent more homes were sold in the region in December. (The South and West saw modest gains of 5.0 and 1.4 percent, respectively.)

While monthly numbers are often inadequate forecasters of the annual trends ahead, the current numbers show that sales may finally be starting to pick up for the coming spring.

Are you missing out on these tax breaks?

by Jeffrey Corman
Are you maximizing all the tax benefits available to you as a homeowner?
Staying up-to-date on the latest tax rules is a smart move if you're interested in keeping more money in your pocket, but with the recent changes from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, you might be a little fuzzy on exactly which credits and deductions you can take advantage of. Whether you're a long-time homeowner or just bought your very first home, it helps to have a refresher. Let's brush up on some of the key tax perks of homeownership, so you can make the most of your benefits this tax season.* 
 
 
A deduction reduces your table income, whereas a credit reduces the tax you owe.
 
Mortgage Interest Deduction
If you took out your mortgage after Dec. 15, 2017, the interest you pay on your first or second mortgage is generally tax deductible on home loans up to $750,000 (or $375,000 if married filing separately). For mortgages taken out on or before Dec. 15, 2017, the deduction applies to home loans up to $1 million (or $500,000 if married filing separately). If you took out a home equity loan or line of credit, the interest is only tax deductible if the loan was used to buy, build, or substantially improve the home that secures the loan. Exceptions, limitations, and restrictions apply, so talk to your tax advisor to see if you're eligible for the mortgage interest deduction.2 

Mortgage Interest Credit
This helps low- to moderate-income people afford homeownership by providing a credit of up to $2,000 on mortgage interest paid in a calendar year. Eligible taxpayers must obtain a Mortgage Credit Certificate (MCC) prior to purchasing their home. The MCC must be issued by a state or local governmental unit or agency under a qualified mortgage credit certificate program.3 

Mortgage Discount Points Deduction
Mortgage Discount Points are something you can purchase to lower your interest rate when you buy your home; one point is typically equal to 1% of the loan amount. If you purchased discount points when you bought your home, you may be able to deduct them on your income tax return. Of course, the IRS has eligibility requirements for deducting points, so talk to your tax advisor to see if you qualify for this deduction.4 

Property Tax Deduction
State and local property taxes that you pay for any real estate you own are deductible up to $10,000 (or $5,000 if married, filing separately). Keep in mind the deduction limit is applied to your overall property tax payments, even if you own more than one property. For instance, if you own two or more properties and your total combined property tax bill was $15,000, you will only be allowed to deduct $10,000 total from your income taxes.2 

Capital Gains Tax Exemption
If you sell certain types of assets for more than their original cost, you may have a capital gain. Capital gains are normally taxable. However, an exception is made if you sell your home for more than the amount you paid (in other words, if you make a profit). The capital gains you get from selling your home are tax-free up to $250,000 (or $500,000 if married filing jointly). The caveat is that you must have lived in that property as your primary residence for two out of the past five years. This tax perk helps you keep more of the equity that you worked to build over the years — yet another example of just how powerful equity can be for growing your wealth.5 

Energy Tax Credits
Interested in making your home more energy-efficient? The federal government offers the residential energy efficient property credit for installing alternative-energy equipment in your primary or secondary residence. This includes qualified solar electricity and water heating, small wind energy, fuel cell, and geothermal heat pump systems. The credit is up to 30% of the cost for purchasing and installing these systems in 2018.6 
 
 
 
Being a homeowner comes with some pretty fantastic advantages, and tax breaks are one of the benefits you don't want to miss out on. Talk to your tax advisor to learn more about how you can max out your tax savings and get the most from your real estate investment.
 
 
 
 
 
*This information is not intended to be a comprehensive or exhaustive list, nor is it intended to be a substitute for expert advice from a professional tax advisor or preparer, or the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Greater Nevada Mortgage and its loan officers are not tax preparers or advisors. Consult a tax professional for more information.

[1] IRS.gov, "Credits and Deductions for Individuals," November 2018.
[2] IRS Publication 5307, "Tax Reform Basics for Individuals and Families," Tax Year 2018.
[3] IRS Form 8396, "Mortgage Interest Credit," 2018.
[4] IRS Topic Number 504 - Home Mortgage Points, January 2018.
[5] IRS Topic Number 701 - Sale of Your Home, February 2018.
[6] IRS 2018 Instructions for Form 5695.

Economic Update

by Jeffrey Corman
Covering the Bases ~ March 1, 2019
  
Lots of housing news this week and it touched all of the bases; construction, sales, and home prices. It also ranged from pretty good to very bad with a bit of "we aren't quite sure."
 
Pending home sales were the good news. They have been, to put it kindly, sluggish for months, with negative reports from October through December. This week the National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced an abrupt and rather surprising turnaround. Its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) surged 4.6% in January, more than doubling the highest predictions of Econoday's analysts. It wasn't enough however to overcome the Index's annual deficit. The PHSI is down 2.3% from January 2018 marking the 13th month of year over year losses. Pending sales were up in all four regions compared to December, although three of them are still running substantially behind year earlier levels.
 
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the increase reflected both the recent lower interest rates and increasing inventories. He cited big gains in listings in Denver, Seattle, San Diego, and Los Angeles.
 
The residential construction report released this week was December data, delayed for five weeks because of the government shutdown. It didn't improve with age. Both housing starts and unit completions were down, while permits eked out a slender 0.3% increase from November and 0.5% year-over-year. Completions were down 2.7% and 8.4% from the two earlier periods.
 
But the real concern was housing starts. They, along with the other two indicators, had a strong November, one of the few good months last year. But not only did a 11.2% nosedive in December wipe out the previous 3.2% gain, but November's reported annual pace was downgraded by 32,000 units. The single-family sector was especially weak for all three measures.
    
Depends on Who You Ask
 
Whether the continued slowdown in appreciation is good or bad news depends on whether you hope to buy or sell and increasingly on where you want to do it. In either case, it happened again in December. The S&P Case-Shiller National Index was up 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis from November and 4.7% annually. The annual gain in November was 5.1%. There was an identical 0.4-point deflation in both the 10- and 20-City Composites to 4.2% and 4.6%, respectively.
 
The annual increase in the Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index, based on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac home purchase mortgages slipped 0.1% from November to December, to 5.6%.
 
The Case-Shiller report noted the regional changes in appreciation. Atlanta just became the third fastest growing while Seattle and Portland (Oregon), which led all metro areas for nearly two years, are now in 11th and 16th place. 
Key Indicators
S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Dec
Up 0.2% MoM (seasonally adj)
Down 0.2% MoM (non-seasonally adj)
Up 4.2% YoY
 
FHFA House Price Index Dec
Up 0.3% MoM
Up 5.7% YoY
 
Factory Orders Dec
Up 0.1%
[Prior down 0.5% rev]
 
Pending Home Sales Jan
Up 4.6% MoM
Down 2.3% YoY
Index 103.2
 
GDP Q4
Up 2.5%
[Prior up 3.4%]
 
Coming Indicators
 
Monday, March 4
Construction Spending
 
Tuesday, March 5
New Home Sales
ISM Non-Mfg Index
 
Gold (Monex)
$1,320/ounce down
 
Crude Oil (Brent)
$66.39/brl down
 
U.S. Dollar to...
Euro                      0.8761 down
Japanese Yen x110.7900 up
Chinese Yuan      6.6848 down
Canadian Dollar  1.3167 down
Mexican Peso    19.1630 down
 
6-mo T-Bill Yield    2.53%
Up 2 bps  
10-yr T-Note Yield 2.69%
Up 4 bps
 
11th Dist Cost of Funds 1/31
1.056 down 4 bps
 
Freddie Mac 30-Year
Avg Rate 2/28
4.35% unchg
 
MBA - Mortgage Applications
Index Week ending 2/22
Overall           
Up 5.3%
[Prior week up 3.6%]
Purchase Money Loans
Up 6.0%
[Prior week up 2.0%]
Refinancing Loans
Up 5.0%
[Prior week up 6.0%]
 
Jobless Claims 2/23
225,000 new claims
[Prior week 217,000 rev]
4-week moving avg 229,000 down
 
Housing Permits Dec
Up 0.3% MoM
Up 0.5% YoY
1.326M units
 
Housing Starts Dec
Down 11.2% MoM
Down 10.9% YoY
1.078M units
 

Weekly Incline Village Market Condition Report

by Jeffrey Corman

Incline Village, NV 89451

Mon Feb 25 2019 
This week the median list price for Incline Village, NV 89451 is $1,695,000 with the market action index hovering around 26. This is an increase over last month's market action index of 25. Inventory has held steady at or around 31. Click here to stay informed with the Incline Village market!

Market Action Index

The Market Action Index answers the question "How's the Market?" by measuring the current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30 implies Seller's Market conditions. Below 30, conditions favor the buyer.

 Today
 Last Month
100026

Slight Buyer's Advantage

Home sales have begun exceeding new inventory. This is a Buyer’s market so prices are not yet moving higher as excess inventory is consumed. If the tightening continues and the market moves into the Seller’s zone, we may see upward pressure on pricing.

Real-Time Market Profile

Never miss important changes in the Incline Village market.
Median List Price
$1,695,000
Per Square Foot
$563
Days on Market
200
Price Decreased
19%
Price Increased
3%
Relisted
3%
Inventory
31
Median House Rent
$8,000
Most Expensive   $10,500,000
Least Expensive   $480,000
Market Action Index 
Slight Buyer's Advantage
26
Avg 7-DayAvg 90-DayMar 2016Jul 2016Nov 2016Mar 2017Jul 2017Nov 2017Mar 2018Jul 2018Nov 2018Feb 2019$1.2M$1.3M$1.4M$1.5M$1.6M$1.7M$1.8M

In the last few weeks we’ve seen prices in this zip code bouncing around this plateau. Look for a persistent down-shift in the Market Action Index before we see prices deviate from these levels.

Market Segments

Each segment below represents approximately 25% of the market ordered by price.

Economic Update

by Jeffrey Corman
More Buyers on the Way ~ February 22, 2019
  
Existing home sales slipped again, but the phrase "its all relative" jumps to mind. So do the words "at least it's not as bad as last month." Sales were down by 1.2% from December. Disappointing, but hardly the 6.4% dive they took then.
 
Lawrence Yun, chief economist for The National Association of Realtors (NAR), said the annual rate of 4.94 million sales in January was the poorest showing since November 2015, but that they are likely to have reached a cyclical low. "Moderating home prices combined with gains in household income will boost housing affordability, bringing more buyers to the market in the coming months," he said.
 
Inventories increased from 1.53 million in December and 1.52 million a year earlier, to 1.59 million. Yun noted inventories have now increased year-over-year for six straight months. He also pointed out that the median annual home price growth of 2.8% in January was the slowest rise since February 2012.
 
Sales fell in every region but the Northeast. In the West they dipped 2.9% to an annual rate of 1.00 million and are now 13.8% below a year ago.
    
Cracking the Code
 
If 2019 turns out to be a good year for home sales, construction guru John McManus, editor of Builder online magazine, says he will have two explanations; 1) the long pent-up demand will begin to ease as Millennials move into the marketplace, and 2) homebuilders, developers, architects, and investors will have begun to crack the code for selling houses to them.
 
With average home prices approaching $400,000, he says the nation "has been telling young adults--in no uncertain terms--'we've got nothing for you'."
 
For this and other reasons, about 15% of Millennials are still living with their parents. Two-thirds of them have bachelor's degrees. They have been acting like smart consumers who have time on their side, McManus says. But given their age, not to mention the ticking biological clock, they may have run that course. Today they have improving job opportunities, growing flex-time and remote work options that expand their commuting range, and in some cases the "Bank of Mom & Dad" to help out with downpayments.
 
At the same time, he continues, builders and the others mentioned above "have been working on designs, product, density, operational processes, selling and data systems to make the present day's nearest facsimile to starter homes, in starter home neighborhoods, for people who want and need them."
 
Adding to what McManus said, and also helping the cause, interest rates dipped for the third straight week. The average 30-year fixed rate was 4.35%.
Key Indicators
Housing Market Index Feb
62
[Prior 58]
 
Leading Indicators Jan
Down 0.1%
[Prior 0.0% rev]
 
Coming Indicators
 
Tuesday, February 26
Residential Construction
S&P Case Shiller Indices
FHFA HPI
 
Wednesday, February 27
Factory Orders
Pending Home Sales
 
Thursday, February 28
GDP
 
 
Gold (Monex)
$1,341/ounce up
 
Crude Oil (Brent)
$67.08/brl up
 
U.S. Dollar to...
Euro                      0.8816 down
Japanese Yen   x110.7500 down
Chinese Yuan     6.71830 down
Canadian Dollar   1.3189 down
Mexican Peso     19.1990 down
 
6-mo T-Bill Yield    2.51%
Unchg  
10-yr T-Note Yield 2.65%
Down 6 bps
 
11th Dist Cost of Funds 1/31
1.056 down 4 bps
 
Freddie Mac 30-Year
Avg Rate 2/21
4.35% down 2 bps
 
MBA - Mortgage Applications
Index Week ending 2/15
Overall           
Up 3.6%
[Prior week down 3.7%]
Purchase Money Loans
Up 2.0%
[Prior week down 6.0%]
Refinancing Loans
Up 6.0%
[Prior week down 0.1%]
 
Jobless Claims 2/16
216,000 new claims
[Prior week 239,000]
4-week moving avg 235,750 up
 
Existing Home Sales Jan
Down 1.2% MoM
Down 8.5% YoY
4.940M units

Weekly Incline Village Market Condition Report

by Jeffrey Corman

Incline Village, NV

Mon Feb 18 2019 
This week the median list price for Incline Village, NV is $1,672,500 with the market action index hovering around 27. This is an increase over last month's market action index of 24. Inventory has held steady at or around 30. Click here to stay informed with the Incline Village market!

Market Action Index

The Market Action Index answers the question "How's the Market?" by measuring the current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30 implies Seller's Market conditions. Below 30, conditions favor the buyer.

 Today
 Last Month
100027

Slight Buyer's Advantage

Home sales have begun exceeding new inventory. This is a Buyer’s market so prices are not yet moving higher as excess inventory is consumed. If the tightening continues and the market moves into the Seller’s zone, we may see upward pressure on pricing.

Real-Time Market Profile

Never miss important changes in the Incline Village market.
Median List Price
$1,672,500
Per Square Foot
$562
Days on Market
203
Price Decreased
20%
Price Increased
3%
Relisted
3%
Inventory
30
Median House Rent
$3,000
Most Expensive   $10,500,000
Least Expensive   $499,000
Market Action Index 
Slight Buyer's Advantage
27
Avg 7-DayAvg 90-DayFeb 2016Jul 2016Nov 2016Mar 2017Jul 2017Nov 2017Mar 2018Jul 2018Nov 2018$1.3M$1.4M$1.5M$1.6M$1.7M$1.8M

The market is hovering around this plateau. Look for a persistent change in the Market Action Index before we see prices deviate from these levels.

Displaying blog entries 1-10 of 198