Market Confidence Remains High in First Quarter 2018

Despite challenging inventory, a nominal increase in interest rates and a slow start to winter, market confidence continued to flourish region-wide in 2018.

The trends can vary dramatically from one community to another, therefore, Sierra Sotheby’s International Realty compiles quarterly micro market data from Reno, Truckee and Lake Tahoe's four different multiple listing services and breaks it all down by neighborhood to help you better understand values, market trends, identify opportunities and make informed real estate decisions.

CLICK ON THE LINKS BELOW TO REVIEW DATA BY NEIGHBORHOOD

EAST SHORE | INCLINE VILLAGE | NORTH & WEST SHORE | RENO | SOUTH LAKE | TRUCKEE

If your community of interest is not listed or you’re unsure what the data means for your situation, please don't hesitate to contact me. Data is current as of April 5, 2018. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Need a current home valuation for your 2018 financial planning or want see what your home might be worth in today's active market? I'm happy to assist.

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>> Market Update

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... The spring buying season started off nicely, as Pending Home Sales reversed course and went up 3.1% in February. This measure of contracts on existing homes indicates more closed sales ahead.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) chief economist noted, "the expanding economy and healthy job market are generating sizable homebuyer demand." But supply is tight and prices are up in many markets.

Those higher prices have given homeowners record amounts of home equity, according to Freddie Mac's Outlook. And that may help supply, as the NAR HOME Survey found that more homeowners believe now is a good time to sell!

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... The vendors you work with can be great sources of referrals. Cultivate those relationships, and don't forget to send business their way too.

>> Review of Last Week

LET'S TRY THE OTHER DIRECTION... After two down weeks, the three major market indexes ended UP strongly for the week. The volatility stems from investors' up and down reactions to the latest news on global trade, the Fed and tech firms.

But stock prices over the long term are driven by growth in the economy and corporate earnings, and many analysts say those look positive. Final Q4 GDP came in at 2.9%, pegging economic growth near 3% for the third month running.

Personal Income rose for the second month in a row and Initial Unemployment Claims fell to their lowest level since 1973. No wonder University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment remains at its highest level in 14 years.

The week ended with the Dow UP 2.7%, to 24143; the S&P 500 UP 2.1%, to 2642; and the Nasdaq UP 1.0%, to 7063.

For bonds, the week also ended with solid gains, as the safe haven play continued. The 30YR FNMA 4.0%, bond we watch ended the week UP .19, at $102.55. When bond prices rise, yields and rates fall, and national average 30-year fixed mortgage rates dipped in Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?... A new study reveals Millennials are the most rent burdened generation, spending about 45% of income and paying close to $100,000 on rent before they reach 30.

>> This Week's Forecast

BUZZING FACTORIES, MORE JOBS, HIGHER WAGES... The ISM Index should stay well above the growth threshold of 50, indicating U.S. factories kept humming in March. The jobs market is getting healthier too. Analysts see new Nonfarm Payrolls just below 200,000, and wages up 0.2% by the Hourly Earnings measure.

>> The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

>> Market Update

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... After heading down two months in a row, Existing Home Sales flew back up in February, increasing 3.3%, to a 5.54 million annual rate. Demand remains strong: 46% of homes sold in less than a month.

New Home Sales were flat in February, off just 0.6%, to a 618,000 annual rate. They're still up 0.5% from a year ago, and there's plenty of room for growth: new homes are only 10% of sales, versus 15% before the downturn.

Zillow reports the median monthly rent bumped to $1,445 in February, gaining at the fastest rate in nearly two years. Expect more renters to become buyers.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... Try to be all things to all people and you wind up motivating no one. Target an audience and tell them how you meet their special wants and needs. Go niche and get rich.

>> Review of Last Week

TRIPLE PLAY... The major stock indexes tumbled, as three big items came into play: 50 million Facebook users had their data mined without their consent, the Fed raised the Funds Rate a quarter point, and the President allowed for tariffs on Chinese goods.

The Facebook scandal incited cries for greater data regulation, which could hurt social media company profits. But the rate hike was expected, and came with the good news that the economic outlook has strengthened.

Trade war worries escalated, even though initial salvos were relatively weak--tariffs on $60 billion of Chinese imports, answered by up to $3 billion in duties on U.S. imports over there. Some say this is just The Art of the Deal, but investors hate not knowing the outcome.

The week ended with the Dow down 5.7%, to 23533; the S&P 500 down 6.0%, to 2588; and the Nasdaq down 6.5%, to 6993.

Tanking stocks did not send lots more investors into bonds, though Treasuries finished the week mostly higher. The 30YR FNMA 4.0%, bond we watch ended the week unchanged, at $102.36. After falling the prior week, national average 30-year fixed mortgage rates held steady in Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?... First American reports, "given today's strong economy, our housing market is well positioned to adopt to rising mortgage rates." If mortgage rates doubled overnight, their computer model posits "a mere 5% decrease" in sales.

>> This Week's Forecast

UP GO PENDING HOME SALES, GDP, CONSUMER SPENDING, INFLATION, MANUFACTURING... The experts say Pending Home Sales should show a February turnaround, foretelling a gain in existing home sales a few months out. They also expect GDP economic growth, Personal Spending and Core PCE Prices (inflation) to head up, as well as the Chicago PMI gauge of Midwest manufacturing

>> Market Update

QUOTATION OF THE WEEK..."Ask five economists and you'll get five different answers--six if one went to Harvard." --Edgar Fiedler, American economist

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... After a spectacular January, Housing Starts took a break in February, dipping 7.0%, to a 1.236 million annual rate, all due to multi-families. Starts are still close to a post-recession high, single-family starts up 2.9% for the month and 2.9% for the year.

Building Permits also fell for the month, but gained for the year, 4.6% for single-families, 10.6% for multi-families. So the future looks bright, with the National Association of Home Builders sentiment index historically high, though it slipped slightly for the month.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports that in 2017, 34% of all home purchases were made by Millennials, giving that generation the highest share of home buyers five years in a row. They're also the most likely group to purchase through an agent.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... To stand out as an expert, really dig into what you need to know. If you just scan the headlines, you'll only get what everyone else does--an incomplete story, missing important details. Take the time to digest all the info you can.

>> Review of Last Week

UP FINISH TO A DOWN WEEK... A volatile week on Wall Street ended with the three major indexes down, although Friday's economic data sent stock prices back up. Trade war worries and personnel changes at Secretary of State and chief economic adviser to the president drove the sell off.

Good economic reports included Industrial Production rising at its fastest pace in four months, while University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment shot up to a 14-year high, its 102 reading well above the long-term average of 86.

Small business optimism is at its second highest lever ever, and the CEO Confidence survey hit 63, well into positive territory above 50. Even a dip in Retail Sales was positive, showing the economy isn't so hot that the Fed will need more than three planned rate hikes this year.

The week ended with the Dow down 1.5%, to 24947; the S&P 500 down 1.2%, to 2752; and the Nasdaq down 1.0%, to 7482.

For the most part, it was prices down, yields up in the bond market, hinting rates may rise. The 30YR FNMA 4.0%, bond we watch ended the week down .02, at $102.36. But national average 30-year fixed mortgage rates actually fell for the first time in 2018 in Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?... J.D. Power reports that 2017 was the first year purchase and refinance customers cited online/website as the most frequent method of submitting a mortgage application.

>> This Week's Forecast

NEW AND EXISTING HOME SALES GROW, THE FED TAKES A HIKE... Analysts say we'll see Existing Home Sales inch toward the 5.5 Million annual rate, and New Home Sales back over 600,000 per year. Almost everyone expects the Fed to take a quarter percent hike in their FOMC Rate Decision.

>> The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... CoreLogic reports January home prices gained 6.6% annually, noting: "Entry-level homes have been in particularly short supply, leading to more rapid home-price growth compared with more expensive homes."

Yet Trulia says affordability has grown. They found that today, the median household can afford a home that's 1.5 times more expensive than the median home price, while in 1980, that household could only afford a home that was about 75% of the median price.

The difference lies with today's historically low mortgage rates. Trulia reports that at today's income levels, mortgage rates would have to reach 9.4% before the median home price became unaffordable nationally.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... Trust your gut. Your instincts usually let you know when something is a good, or a bad, idea. To access your instincts, simply sit quietly and listen to yourself.

>> Review of Last Week

TARIFFS, SCHMARIFFS... Tariff and trade war worries evaporated after investors were blind-sided by a blockbuster February jobs number--313,000 new Nonfarm Payrolls. The blue-chip Dow shot back up over 25,000 and the tech-y Nasdaq catapulted to a new record high.

That unexpectedly large jobs total was reported as "a reflection of the strongest labor market in two decades." Party poopers pooh-poohed the 0.1% gain in hourly wages, but those are still up 2.6% for the year, and that's not counting bonus and commission income.

Thursday, the President signed a proclamation for tariffs on steel and aluminum. But he exempted Canada and Mexico and left open possible exemptions for other countries willing to renegotiate current deals. Investors liked that, though not as much as Friday's jobs report.

The week ended with the Dow UP 3.3%, to 25336; the S&P 500 UP 3.5%, to 2787; and the Nasdaq UP 4.2%, to 7561.

In the bond market, Treasuries finished modestly lower, but the 30YR FNMA 4.0%, bond we watch ended the week unchanged, at $102.38. In Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, national average 30-year fixed mortgage rates edged up for the ninth week in a row. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?... The New York Fed reports mortgage debt increased by $139 billion the last quarter, but still remains 4.4% below its peak level. So, more recovery to come.

>> This Week's Forecast

HOME BUILDING, INFLATION SLOW, RETAIL SALES, MANUFACTURING GROW... February Housing Starts are forecast off a tad, just under the 1.3 million mark. Analysts predict inflation has slowed, gauged by the February Consumer Price Index (CPI). But Retail Sales are expected to show growth, along with manufacturing, according to the Philadelphia Fed Index and other key factory measures.

>> The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

>> Market Update

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales, an index of contracts signed on existing homes, fell 4.7% in January. Low inventory was the culprit, but the NAR's chief economist sees hope, as starts near the "historical annual average of 1.5 million."

Housing reports tend to be volatile month-to-month, so the NAR is sticking to its forecast of 5.5 million existing home sales this year, virtually identical to 2017's 5.51 million.

New Home Sales took a 7.8% January tumble, to a 593,000 yearly rate. But, hey, last year these sales hit their highest total in a decade. One property economist offered: "With inventory levels at nine-year highs, and demand supported by rising household incomes, new home sales are set for a decent 2018."

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... Technology levels the playing field, so it's vital to focus on your unique brand--that's the quality of the client experience you provide, the emotional connection you make with clients and what they tell others about you.

>> Review of Last Week

DOUBLE WHAMMY... After moving ahead the two prior weeks, stocks went lower last week, as investors got the double whammy of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Congressional testimony, and the President's trade tariffs, 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum. Both point to the possibility of more rate hikes.

Powell testified that his economic projections have improved, making investors fear there might be four rate hikes this year. And though tariffs likely won't give us the trade wars and economic hits others bemoan, they could hike inflation--and interest rates. Please note: the tariffs aren't yet set in stone!

At least consumers are sanguine about rates. January's University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reported consumers show little concern about growing interest rates, as the Index shot up to its second highest level in 14 years.

The week ended with the Dow down 3.0%, to 24538; the S&P 500 down 2.0%, to 2691; and the Nasdaq down 1.1%, to 7258.

Bonds proved volatile, with advances following declines and vice versa. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch lost .09, to $102.38. Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey had national average 30-year fixed mortgage rates up, now eight weeks in a row. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?... The share of buyers willing to make an offer on a home sight unseen is growing. An online real estate database reports 35% of recent buyers made an offer without first visiting the home.

>> This Week's Forecast

SERVICES SECTOR GROWS, ALONG WITH JOBS... It's good to see the February ISM Services index is still up there. A read above 50 indicates growth, and we're staying well north of that threshold. The services sector of the economy provides the bulk of our jobs, so it makes sense that new Nonfarm Payrolls are forecast at more than 200,000, while the Unemployment Rate ticks down again.

>> The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... Following their December decline, Existing Home Salesdipped again in January by 3.2%, to a 5.38 million annual rate. Though volatile month to month, home sales in 2017 racked up their best year since 2006 and are expected to maintain that upward trend.

An IRS bulletin explains interest on home equity loans may still be deductible. The loan must be used to "buy, build or substantially improve" a home. And to deduct interest, all loans on the home cannot exceed a $750,000 limit ($350,000 if married filing separately).

As with all tax matters, always consult a tax professional before making any tax-related decision.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... Spend a half hour to an hour each day prospecting on the phone. Book the time on your schedule--and just do it. Why? People who consistently prospect earn more. Simple as that.

>> Review of Last Week

FED FOLLIES... A crazy week on Wall Street, thanks to the Fed. Stocks went south on Wednesday after the Fed's Minutes from its last meeting revealed most members see stronger growth in the economy and inflation. This could necessitate more rate hikes, which investors don't much like.

But Friday, the Fed's semi-annual monetary policy report also noted broad improvement in the economy and increasing inflation, but did not suggest that rising prices dictated more aggressive rate hikes. Happy with that, the market rallied to another weekly gain.

GDP averaged 2.9% the last three quarters (after averaging 2.1% since 2010), unemployment is at a 17-year low, and wages, consumer confidence and business investment are rising. A few rate hikes (which, remember, are starting from a very low level) may be a small price to pay for this progress.

The week ended with the Dow UP 0.4%, to 25310; the S&P 500 UP 0.6%, to 2747; and the Nasdaq UP 1.4%, to 7337.

Bond prices suffered from the inflation worries, but recovered a bit on Friday. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch ended unchanged, at $102.47. National average 30-year fixed mortgage rates in Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey edged up. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?... Zillow reports the U.S. housing market has completely recovered its $9 trillion of value lost in the downturn. The average U.S. home is now worth $55,200 more than when prices hit bottom.

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... Coming off their best year in a decade, Housing Starts surprisingly rose 9.7% in January, as home building heated up to a 1.326 million annual rate. The future looks good too, with Building Permits up to a 1.396 million annual rate.

Small wonder the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) found builder confidence in future sales expectations is now at a post-recession high. The NAHB Chair put this to "the pro-business political climate that will strengthen the housing market."

Finally, a recent study reports the median age at which consumers buy their first home is 29.1 years. Yet some three quarters of millennials are not currently homeowners. What an opportunity.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... The goal is always to give clients an amazing experience. But make sure the prospects are worth that extra effort. If not, don't take them on.

>> Review of Last Week

REBOUND... After falling sharply the prior two weeks, the stock market rebounded last week, recovering about half its losses, and the three major indexes are again ahead for the year. It seems the big dip on Wall Street was just a correction.

That's not to say we won't have greater volatility this year than last, when stocks gained more than 20% while never posting even a 3% loss. This year, investors worry about inflation driving the Fed to more rate hikes, and last week saw a hotter than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI).

But the economy doesn't seem in danger of overheating. Its strength is growing, with corporate earnings up more than 15% and revenues up nearly 8% the past year, plus historically low unemployment. It's no surprise Michigan Consumer Sentiment hit 99.9, its second highest print in 14 years.

The week ended with the Dow UP 4.3%, to 25219; the S&P 500 also UP 4.3%, to 2732; and the Nasdaq UP 5.3%, to 7239.

In bonds, prices generally softened, as investors shifted money back into equities. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch dipped .08, to $102.47. Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported national average 30-year fixed mortgage rates continue to climb, reaching the level they posted in April 2014. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?... Mortgage rates are expected to rise, but the market can take it. A recent survey of home buyers by a real estate database reports only 6% of respondents said they would cancel their purchase plans if mortgage rates exceeded 5%.

>> This Week's Forecast

EXISTING HOME SALES STILL GROWING... Forecasters expect to see continued growth in Existing Home Sales in January, hitting an annual rate well above 5.5 million. Not much else gets reported during this four-day week, but we'll keep an eye on Unemployment Claims, predicted to remain historically low.

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) rose in January to a new all-time high. More people say that now is a good time to buy and a good time to sell, home prices should rise and mortgage rates fall, and job loss isn't a concern.

Supporting this, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) latest Housing Opportunities and Market Experience (HOME) survey reports 72% of respondents think now is a good time to buy and 71% think now is a good time to sell, "good news for possible inventory gains heading into 2018."

The NAR's chief economist feels, "housing demand in 2018 will be fueled by more Millennials finally deciding to marry and have kids, and the expectations that solid job growth and the strengthening economy will push incomes higher." Pretty good, that.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... Business coaches advise that to get more done, you should design your day. Write down a schedule of what you'll do and when you'll do it. Then stick to it.

>> Review of Last Week

ROLLER COASTER DOWN... If you like wild rides, you would have loved the one investors took last week. The Dow fell steeply (1,000 points) on two different days, then climbed back up Tuesday and Friday, though not enough to keep the major indexes positive for the year.

We heard lots of yak that the stock drop was caused by fears of higher inflation and more short-term rate hikes from the Fed. OK. But those concerns come from the expectation of stronger economic growth, which ultimately is good for stocks.

Many experts called this a "correction" after stocks shot up 7.5% the first four weeks of 2018 following last year's 19.4% surge. They say there's little concern for housing or the economy, with more Americans working than ever, the highest inflation-adjusted wages and near historically low interest rates.

The week ended with the Dow down 5.2%, to 24191; the S&P 500 also down 5.2%, to 2620; and the Nasdaq down 5.1%, to 6874.

Bonds were kept in check by concerns over more federal spending. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch fell .28, to $102.55. National average 30-year fixed mortgage rates hit their highest level since December 2016 in Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, but "initial readings indicate housing markets are sustaining their momentum so far." Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?... A recent poll says 9 out of 10 lenders expect to lend more in 2018 than in 2017. The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts $1.18 trillion in purchase mortgages this year.

It’s an overcast January day and I’m driving through Crystal Bay, Nev., on my way to Diamond Peak. Looking up ahead, a white streak from the top of the mountain going down toward the lake is illuminated in a sliver of sunshine. It’s where I am headed.

Once at Diamond Peak, I park at the base lodge, grab a lift ticket, ride the Lodgepole lift so I can traverse over to the Crystal Express quad. I take that lift to the top. It is gradually getting colder, a winter wonderland with frost-tipped pine trees.

“It has one of the most spectacular views in the world and I’ve skied in New Zealand, Canada, South America and all over the United States. There’s no beating that view.”

–Carl Hill

There is more snow coverage than I expected. But, also, I’m hit with the magnificent beauty in front of me: a panoramic view of Lake Tahoe. The lake looks calm and changes shades of gray and blue as the clouds pass over. Diamond Peak staff recently built the Lakeview terrain park on the left side of upper Crystal Ridge and I watch a few skiers and snowboarders hit the rails and go over the wall ride with the vastness of the lake as their backdrop.

I stay on the right side, on the groomed part of the trail, the soft snow swishing under my snowboard. About halfway down, I look up again and see Snowflake Lodge perched on top of the Lakeview lift. Soon Crystal Ridge morphs into the Sunnyside run and I make even, wide turns feeling like I have the mountain to myself.

Even though I have been on this run hundreds of times, it never gets old. About one mile down the trail, I reach Crystal Express again and go back up. Coming off of the lift and strapping into my board, a couple stops to take a picture together at the top of Crystal Ridge. I can’t help myself and pull out my camera, too.

In his 26 years of teaching ski lessons, Diamond Peak Ski School director Carl Hill has taken thousands of skiers up to Diamond Peak’s Crystal Ridge and his students are consistently blown away by the views.

“It has one of the most spectacular views in the world and I’ve skied in New Zealand, Canada, South America and all over the United States. There’s no beating that view,” he says.

Breathtaking views await at Crystal Ridge. | Jen Schmidt, Diamond Peak To truly tackle Crystal Ridge, it helps to be a confident skier or snowboarder on intermediate/advanced terrain. For more advanced skiers, most of the black diamond runs are accessible from Crystal Ridge.

“I recommend that people immerse themselves in a lesson program to build their skills to the point of enabling them to ski at an advanced/intermediate level,” says Hill. “It all depends on the snow conditions, too. You want to go up there when it’s machine-groomed, packed powder.”

On those days that I’m stuck inside and can’t enjoy firsthand the views of Lake Tahoe from Crystal Ridge, fortunately the resort offers a live Web cam available on its Web site so that I can always see what is going. The 24-hour time lapse is also fun to play back to see the full operation from the groomers pushing snow at night to the skiers shedding it during the day.

“Watching the sunsets from the day before is one of my favorite things to do,” Diamond Peak marketing manager Paul Raymore says.