Incline Village at Lake Tahoe, Nevada Real Estate and Community News

Jan. 16, 2017

LAKE TAHOE WEATHER FORECAST

Summary

Foggy, mostly cloudy, and cold today with highs in the 30's. Foggy and partly sunny Tuesday with highs rising into the low 40's at lake level. Wednesday the next storm begins to move in. It will be cloudy and windy with gusts reaching 100 mph on the ridges by late afternoon. Light snow may begin to move in during the afternoon, especially West of the lake along the crest. Wednesday night heavier snowfall will move in and then taper to scattered snow showers Thursday. We could see 5-13 inches at lake level, and 6-16 inches on the mountains by Thursday afternoon. Then a break Thursday night but cold with lows in the 20's. Friday another cold storm moves in with heavy snow into Saturday night. Then tapering to snow showers on Saturday. We could see an additional 6-16 inches at lake level, and 7-22 inches on the mountains by Saturday afternoon. Then a break Saturday night with lows in the 20's. A final cold storm moves in Sunday with heavy snow into Sunday night. Then tapering to snow showers on Monday. We could see an additional 1-2 feet at lake level and 2-3 feet on the mountains. Then a pattern change as high pressure builds in near the West coast. We may see a break in the storms for at least a week starting next Tuesday.

Short Term Forecast

A couple of readers mentioned a 24 hour snowfall record last week. I checked with my official snowfall station the Central Sierra Snow Lab on Donner Summit. They reported that we saw 35 inches of snow in 24 hours during the big storm last Tuesday. The 24 hour record however is 59 inches, so not even close to the 24 hour record.

We have been dealing with fog in the mornings this week. It is pretty thick around the area again this morning. It has been causing ice on the ski lifts which has been an issue for the lower parts of the mountains at the ski resorts. Today will be colder than originally expected with mostly cloudy skies above the fog, and fog down low. The skies may clear a bit more Tuesday allowing the sun to burn off the fog.

The forecast has not changed much from yesterday. The GFS did continue to elongate the trough as it moves in Wednesday. Some runs were even splitting the storm at it hit the Sierra. The latest run this morning is holding it together better, as well as on the other models. It will get very windy on the mountains Wednesday and then we may see light snow move in during the afternoon. Snow levels look to lower faster, possibly to lake level by evening.

Here is the GFS total precip forecast. You can see better spillover East of the crest this morning.

This will be a fast hitting cold front that moves through Wednesday night. The GFS cuts off precip fast Thursday morning. The European model keeps snow showers going a little longer behind the front Thursday. The European model also moves in snow showers a little faster Wednesday afternoon, so it is wetter than the GFS. Expect a quick shot of several inches overnight Wednesday.

Here is the updated snowfall forecast that did tick up slightly with the lower snow levels and better spillover on the GFS. This is by Thursday afternoon as the storm clears the area.

We should have a break Thursday afternoon into Thursday night but then another cold storm may push in snow during the early morning hours Friday. This storm is colder than the first, and looks a little wetter as well. It will also last a little longer with heavy snow Friday into Friday night, before tapering to snow showers by Saturday morning and then moving out by Saturday afternoon.

Here is the GFS total precip forecast through Saturday.

A break Saturday night is short lived as a final cold storm moves in Sunday. This storm could bring heavy snow Sunday into Sunday night before tapering off to snow showers on Monday, and then clearing out Monday night.

Here is the GFS total precip forecast through Monday.

Too early for specific snowfall numbers, but we could see 1-2 feet at lake level and 2-3 feet on the mountains with this storm if the forecast holds.

So basically 6 days of snow starting Wednesday with 3 storms moving through. It appears that each storm will be progressively colder and wetter. That would bring nice powder to the mountains making for incredible skiing on top of the incredible base we have already.

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Extended Forecast Be sure to get out and enjoy the snow over the 6 day period because a pattern change is coming. The latest ensemble runs of the models show that the ridge sit over Western Canada starting next Tuesday and not Alaska yet, with high pressure extending over the Western U.S. That may bring a break in the storms for at least a week starting next Tuesday.

We may see a pattern that finally brings some Winter to the Eastern U.S. with a trough developing there. The AO and NAO are forecast to go negative and the PNA neutral. We could see a trough lock into the East for the end of the month into February and a ridge for the West. Hoping the ridge does shift North and West towards Alaska again so that we can get storms to cut underneath into CA.

Posted in Community News
Jan. 16, 2017

REAL ESTATE AND MORTGAGE RATES - LAST WEEK IN REVIEW AND FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK

Consumers spent more time ringing up sales in December.

The Commerce Department reported that Retail Sales rose 0.6 percent in December from November. The increase was due in part to strong sales for autos. The year ended with momentum that could signal sales growth in 2017. From December 2015, sales were up 4.1 percent year over year. Overall, sales were up 3.3 percent for 2016 after a 2.3 percent gain in 2015.

Meanwhile, wholesale inflation ticked up in December, increasing 0.3 percent from November, as reported in the Producer Price Index (PPI) from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. From December 2015 to December 2016, PPI climbed 1.6 percent, which was the largest 12-month gain since 2014. Core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, also increased 0.2 percent from November to December.

Inflation, at both the wholesale and consumer levels, is an important measure to track because increasing inflation reduces the value of fixed investments like Mortgage Bonds. When Bond prices worsen, the home loan rates tied to them can worsen as well.

Although Bond prices and home loan rates took a hit recently following economic news releases, home loan rates are still near historic lows.

If you or someone you know has any questions , please don't hesitate to contact me.

Forecast for the Week

The Consumer Price Index is a key report to watch in a week that kicks off Tuesday with a full slate of manufacturing, housing and other data. Markets are closed Monday, January 16 in recognition of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

Regional manufacturing data will be released in the Empire State Index on Tuesday followed by the Philadelphia Fed Index on Thursday.

Wednesday brings the closely watched Consumer Price Index along with the Fed's Beige Book.

Look for housing data via the NAHB Housing Market Index on Wednesday and Housing Starts and Building Permits on Thursday.

As usual, weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be reported on Thursday.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve. In contrast, strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving. When Bond prices are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further, a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes are on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds recently lost some of the footing gained heading into 2017.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jan 13, 2017)

Posted in Real Estate News
Jan. 10, 2017

REAL ESTATE - LAST WEEK IN REVIEW AND FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK

Unemployment edged higher in December with more Americans entering the labor market. Wages ticked up, too.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported U.S. employers added 156,000 new jobs in December, which was below the 175,000 expected. October and November job growth was revised higher by 19,000. In 2016, job growth totaled 2.2 million, down from a gain of 2.7 million in 2015.

The Unemployment Rate ticked higher to 4.7 percent in December. While this might seem negative, it's actually positive because more Americans sought out employment in December.

Average hourly earnings rose from -0.1 percent in November to 0.4 percent in December. In addition, average hourly earnings rose 2.9 percent year-over-year, the fastest pace since June 2009. Wage growth is a welcome sign for American workers, especially for those looking to buy a home.

Home price gains remained solid in November. CoreLogic, a leading provider of consumer, financial and property information, reported that home prices, including distressed sales, rose 7.1 percent from November 2015 to November 2016. Low inventories of homes for sale continued to push prices higher. The recent rise in mortgage rates and the expectation of higher rates in 2017 could slow home price gains in 2017, CoreLogic reported. Home prices are expected to rise 4.7 percent from November 2016 to November 2017.

Home loan rates were able to improve slightly after reaching two-year highs. They are still in historically low territory, though the volatility in the markets that followed the presidential election could continue.

If you or someone you know has any questions , please don't hesitate to contact me.

Forecast for the Week

News on wholesale inflation and Retail Sales highlight a quiet week for economic reports.

Thursday brings the first release with weekly Initial Jobless Claims.

On Friday, the wholesale inflation reading Producer Price Index, Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment Index will be delivered.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve. In contrast, strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving. When Bond prices are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further, a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes are on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds stopped their downward slide recently and made up some ground.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jan 06, 2017)

Posted in Real Estate News
Jan. 10, 2017

SIERRA SOTHEBY'S RELEASES YEAR END MARKET DATA

Sierra Sotheby's Releases Year End Market Data


2016 was an exciting year for Lake Tahoe, Truckee and surrounding area real estate markets. With metrics pointing to some all time highs in sales volume coupled with market-wide price improvements, this year proved to be a prolific time for Lake Tahoe’s real estate climate.

As pricing inches back to historical highs of 2007, demand continues to outpace inventory. And because the market reacts differently throughout the region’s many diverse communities, 2016 showed variable success across different segments.

Click the links below to see how the market performed in your favorite Tahoe neighborhood(s). If you've considered selling, now may be a great time to weigh your options.

EAST SHORE | INCLINE VILLAGE | NORTH & WEST SHORE | RENO | SOUTH LAKE | TRUCKEE

Posted in Market Updates
Dec. 26, 2016

REAL ESTATE AND MORTGAGE RATES - LAST WEEK IN REVIEW AND FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK

Existing Home Sales hit nine-year highs, and the third reading of third quarter Gross Domestic Product charmed.

The National Association of REALTORS® reported that Existing Home Sales in November edged higher by 0.7 percent from October to an annual rate of 5.61 million units. Year-over-year, Existing Home Sales were up 15.4 percent, but that number could be distorted. "Know Before You Owe" or "TRID" rules went into effect November 2015, and many mortgage applications last year were pushed into December with the new requirements. November New Home Sales were also up 5.2 percent from October, coming in above expectations.

Economic activity was alive and well in the third quarter of 2016. The final reading for third quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in at 3.5 percent, above the 3.3 percent expected and well above the anemic readings of 1.4 percent in the second quarter and 0.8 percent in the first quarter. Within the report, consumer spending was up 3.0 percent from 2.8 percent. Business investments surged to 1.4 percent from 0.1 percent.

GDP represents the total dollar value of all goods and services produced over a specific time period, and it's one of the primary indicators used to measure the health of a country's economy. This report was welcome news.

For homebuyers and homeowners looking to refinance, a strengthening economy may seem like a mixed blessing. Why? If our economy continues to strengthen, and Stocks continue to improve at the expense of Mortgage Bonds, home loan interest rates could slide higher.

Although home loan rates rose to their highest levels in 2016 at the close of the year, they are still in historically low territory.

If you or someone you know has any questions , please don't hesitate to contact me.

Forecast for the Week

Trading volumes should decrease in the week between Christmas and New Year's, but data releases don't take holiday vacation.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index will be released on Tuesday, followed by Pending Homes Sales on Wednesday.

Consumer Confidence will be delivered on Tuesday.

Thursday brings weekly Initial Jobless Claims.

Regional manufacturing data from the Chicago PMI will be reported on Friday.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve. In contrast, strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving. When Bond prices are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further, a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes are on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds gained a little ground recently.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Dec 23, 2016)

Posted in Real Estate News
Dec. 12, 2016

REAL ESTATE AND MORTGAGE RATES - LAST WEEK IN REVIEW AND FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK

Home prices aren't the only thing on the rise. Economic activity in the services sector looks good.

Home price gains remain solid. CoreLogic, a leading provider of consumer, financial and property information, reported that home prices, including distressed sales, rose by 6.7 percent from October 2015 to October 2016. From September to October, prices rose 1.1 percent as the sector continues to graze in greener pastures. Looking ahead, prices are expected to rise 4.6 percent from October 2016 to October 2017.

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in November for the 82nd consecutive month, according to the nation's purchasing and supply executives. The ISM Services Index came in at 57.2 in November, above the 55.6 expected and the 54.8 posted in October. This national non-manufacturing index is based on a survey of roughly 370 purchasing executives in industries including finance and insurance, real estate, and construction.

The strong ISM Services Index report and Stock rallies throughout the week weighed on Mortgage Bond prices. This in turn impacted home loan rates, which are tied to Mortgage Bonds.

Although home loan rates have crept up recently, they are still near historic lows, helping offset rising home prices.

If you or someone you know has any questions, please don't hesitate to contact me.

Forecast for the Week

The last Federal Open Market Committee meeting of 2016 and a packed economic calendar might make investors jittery.

Releases kick off on Wednesday with Retail Sales and the Fed's monetary policy statement.

Also on Wednesday, look for news on wholesale inflation via the Producer Price Index. The Consumer Price Index follows Thursday.

Thursday also brings regional manufacturing data via the Philadelphia Fed and Empire State Indexes.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be released Thursday, as usual.

In the housing sector, look for the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index on Thursday and Housing Starts and Building Permits on Friday.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve. In contrast, strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving. When Bond prices are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further, a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes are on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds have stabilized but have struggled to break above key resistance levels since falling in November.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Dec 09, 2016)

Posted in Real Estate News
Dec. 7, 2016

LAKE TAHOE SALES

Lake Tahoe Sales

With just over 1 month left in the year, I’ve compiled single family home sales data for Incline Village and included “pending sales” in the total sales data, assuming these close in under 40 days. The most notable trend is the increase in the number of sales between $1 Million and $2 Million jumping nearly 40% in 2016. $3 Million and above sales were almost absent in our market until mid August, however, 10 recent sales have brought us back on par with 2015. Lakefront home sales continue to be hampered by low inventory. I have had many inquiries from serious lakefront buyers waiting for the right lakefront opportunity to arise, in all price ranges.

With the election past us and the financial markets faring well, home sales in the luxury markets should continue to improve into 2017. Inventory may hamper upper end sales and lakefronts, and there are benefits for sellers who list in our quieter winter season targeting the serious buyers looking now.

Non-Lakefront Home Sales

Under $2 Million

In contrast to the slow start for sales in the luxury market over $3 Million in 2016, $1- $2 Million sales jumped nearly 40% to 85 homes sold in 2016 compared to just 54 in 2015. The total number of homes sold below $2 Million increased 7%, as well. Median price increased 16% and price per sq. ft. increased by 10%.

See all sales data under $2 Million for 2016

Over $2 Million

The Incline Village Crystal Bay luxury market is leveling out since the market made a come back starting in 2012. Median sales price is down just over 1% and price per sq. ft. dropped 1% to $614 per sq. ft. for homes over $2 Million. Notably, only 1 home sold in Incline Village over $3 Million up to mid August. Days on market for homes sold increased by 40%, sitting over 100 days longer on market before selling. After a slow start, there were 10 additional home sales over $3 Million since August, nearly on par with the 12 sales for 2015.

See all sales data over $2 Million for 2016

Lakefront Homes

Lakefront properties comprise a small portion of our market, yet are a strong indicator for luxury home sales. We still see strength in pricing on relatively low inventory. Of note, there are currently only 3 direct lakefront homes listed for sale currently in Incline Village, all priced above $10 Million. There are 9 total lakefront properties, including both Incline Village and Crystal Bay, NV.

Lakefront home sales have dropped in numbers with 14 sales in 2013, 8 sales in 2014, 4 sales in 2015, and just 3 in 2016. The notable lakefront estate “Sierra Star” sold in the first week of 2016 for $25.25 Million which is the highest sales price in 3 years. Note that the data includes both direct lakefront homes and shared HOA lake frontage, so median pricing varies widely based on location, lake frontage and quality construction.

Posted in Market Updates
Dec. 7, 2016

REAL ESTATE AND MORTGAGE RATES - LAST WEEK IN REVIEW AND FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK

Job growth held steady in November while economic activity surged third quarter.

Consumer spending and business investment pushed Gross Domestic Product (GDP) above expectations in the third quarter. After weak economic growth the first half of 2016, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the second reading of third quarter GDP surged ahead by 3.2 percent, the fastest pace in two years. GDP is the monetary value of all finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period, and it is considered the broadest measure of economic activity. Consumer spending rose by 2.8 percent while business investment rose sharply by 10.1 percent.

Job growth held steady in November. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that U.S. employers added 178,000 new jobs in November, near the expected 180,000. That brings the monthly average to 181,000 in 2016. Within the report it showed that average hourly earnings fell by 0.1 percent, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.6 percent, the lowest level since August 2007. The low unemployment rate, however, is due in part to some unemployed Americans dropping out of the workforce.

Personal incomes also rose 0.6 percent in October, the best monthly gain since April, while personal spending was up 0.3 percent, below the 0.5 percent expected.

The pickup in income is good for consumers and the economy; however, it can lead to higher inflation if the trend continues. For now, the inflation gauge Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (which removes volatile food and energy prices) remained tame in October, rising 0.1 percent from September, in line with estimates. The year-over-year rate was unchanged at 1.7 percent. When inflation rises, it can hurt the value of fixed investments like Mortgage Bonds, to which home loan rates are tied. This means higher inflation can also cause home loan rates to rise.

Although home loan rates hit their highest 2016 levels at the close of November, rates are still historically low.

If you or someone you know has any questions , please don't hesitate to contact me.

Forecast for the Week

Only a few reports remain in the lead up to the Federal Open Market Committee meeting December 13-14

ISM Services Index will be released on Monday.

On Tuesday, third quarter Productivity will be delivered.

As usual, weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be reported on Thursday.

Closing out the week, the Consumer Sentiment Index will be released on Friday.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve. In contrast, strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving. When Bond prices are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further, a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes are on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds gained some traction in recent days after significant losses the last few weeks.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Dec 02, 2016)

Posted in Real Estate News
Nov. 21, 2016

REAL ESTATE AND MORTGAGE RATES - LAST WEEK IN REVIEW AND FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK

The latest numbers on Housing Starts and Building Permits may encourage dismayed homebuyers facing a lack of inventory.

October Housing Starts surged, the Commerce Department reported, up 25.5 percent from September. It was the highest level since September 2007. Single-family starts, which make up the largest share of the market, jumped nearly 11 percent, while multi-dwelling starts skyrocketed by 68 percent. From October 2015 to October 2016, Housing Starts were up 23.3 percent. October Building Permits also rose 0.3 percent.

In more good news, Retail Sales were solid in October, which could spark a boost in the U.S. economy heading into the holiday shopping season. The Commerce Department reported Retail Sales rose 0.8 percent, above expectations, while September's numbers were revised higher. The positive numbers in September and October were the best two-month rise since early 2014. Retail Sales are up 4.3 percent from a year ago.

Wholesale inflation was unchanged and still tame in October, per the Producer Price Index report. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) edged higher but was in line with expectations in October at a 0.4 percent increase, though this was the largest gain in six months. Core CPI (which strips out volatile food and energy) was just below estimates. Year-over-year consumer inflation numbers edged lower.

Inflation will continue to be a data point to watch since increased inflation can hurt the value of fixed investments like Mortgage Bonds, and home loan rates to which Mortgage Bonds are tied.

For now, although home loan rates edged higher following election results, they are still in attractive territory.

If you or someone you know has any questions , please don't hesitate to contact me.

Forecast for the Week

Investors will have a lot to digest in this shortened Thanksgiving week.

Existing Home Sales will be released Tuesday followed by New Home Sales on Wednesday.

Durable Goods Orders will also be released on Wednesday along with the Consumer Sentiment Index, weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes.

The markets will be closed all day Thursday for Thanksgiving. On Friday, Stocks will close at 1:00 p.m. ET, while the Bond markets will close at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve. In contrast, strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving. When Bond prices are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further, a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes are on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds have attempted to stabilize following their post-election dive.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Nov 18, 2016)

Posted in Real Estate News
Nov. 14, 2016

REAL ESTATE - LAST WEEK IN REVIEW AND FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK

As Americans went to the polls to exercise their right to vote for president, global markets took notice.

When Donald Trump was declared president elect, the market reactions overnight were as wild and unpredictable as the election itself. Dow futures were down more than 800 points in the wee hours of the morning, only to close up 250 points Wednesday. Further, the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened Thursday at a new all-time high.

Investors may feel the win is more Stock-market friendly with potential tax cuts, deregulation of banks, and higher defense and infrastructure spending. There is also speculation that President-elect Trump's anticipated policies could spur a rise in inflation.

Rallies in the Stock markets and inflationary increases both can have a negative effect on Mortgage Backed Securities, the type of Bond to which home loan rates are tied.

In other news, weekly Initial Jobless Claims continue to signal a robust job market. The Labor Department reported that the number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits fell 11,000 to 254,000 during the week ending November 5, below the 262,000 expected. First-time claims have now remained below the 300,000 mark for 88 consecutive weeks, a stretch not seen since 1970.

For now, home loan rates remain attractive despite edging higher recently.

If you or someone you know has any questions please don't hesitate to contact me.

Forecast for the Week

Inflation, housing and manufacturing reports will stand out in this data-rich week as the Fed gears up for its Federal Open Market Committee meeting in December.

The Retail Sales report kicks off the week on Tuesday.

Regional manufacturing data comes from the Empire State Index and the Philadelphia Fed Index on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively.

Inflation metrics will be shared in the Producer Price Index on Wednesday and the Consumer Price Index on Thursday.

Housing market data is plentiful starting with Wednesday's release of the NAHB Housing Market Index followed by Housing Starts and Building Permits on Thursday.

As usual, weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be delivered on Thursday.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve. In contrast, strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving. When Bond prices are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further, a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes are on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds took a dive recently following the presidential election. Bond markets were closed Friday, November 11 in observance of Veterans Day.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Nov 11, 2016)

Posted in Real Estate News