Incline Village at Lake Tahoe, Nevada Real Estate and Community News

Jan. 25, 2019

BLINDSIDED ~ JANUARY 25, 2019

Blindsided ~ January 25, 2019

Existing home sales were approaching the end of the year on a promising note. Monthly data from the National Association of Realtors had shown sales slipping in May, June, July.... Then in October there was an unexpected rebound, not a big one, an increase of 1.4% from September, but still a welcome relief. The November report bestowed another 1.9% gain; sales seemed to be getting back on a roll. Of course, by then, year-over-year sales were down 7.0%, the lowest in 7-1/2 years.

Analysts were expecting a slight decline in December. Those sales would have reflected houses put under agreement primarily in late October and November when interest rates had peaked, but the report actual blindsided everyone--a 6.4% decline. This further widened the year-over-year deficit, of course. December finished up 10.3% behind the same month last year; 4.99 million annualized sales compared to 5.56 million.

The bad news didn't stop there. Sales were down in every region--from 1.9% in the West (and 15% year-over-year) to 11.2% in the Midwest. And despite flagging sales, the for-sale inventory still shrunk, from 1.74 million homes and a 3.7-month supply in October to 1.55 million and 3.2 months.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun told CNBC's "Nightly Business Report" that such a huge change is usually due to some big news "like an expiring tax credit or a change in consumer protection laws." This one he pinned on buyers' price concerns as well as the November rate peak. Elsewhere he also faulted the continuing lack of inventory.

Joel Kan, Associate Vice President of the Mortgage Bankers Association, had a slightly more upbeat outlook. He acknowledged the current affordability challenges but added "We do expect this to dissipate slowly, as there have been more signs of moderating home-price growth and accelerating wage growth, which should help bridge the affordability gap."

Bucking The Trend

While we have seen appreciation moderating in most recent home price reports, those from the Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA's) have been remarkably stable. With the exception of September, month-over-month national price gains have held steady at 0.4% since May. That held true for this week's report for November as well. The year-over-year increase was 5.8%, up 0.1 point from October.

Regional indices are a different matter. Four of the nine census divisions posted monthly increases in the 1.0% vicinity but three were in negative territory including the Pacific division with the largest decline, 0.8%. Further, the annual price increase in November was 4.9%, only slightly more than half of the annual gain in November 2017 of 8.9%.

Finally, giving new meaning to the word "stability," the 30-year fixed-rate remains at 4.45% for the third straight week.

Key Indicators

FHFA Home Prices Nov

Up 0.4% MoM

Up 5.8% YoY

 

Leading Indicators Dec

Down 0.1%

[Prior up 0.2%]

 

Coming Indicators

 

Friday, January 25

New Home Sales

 

Tuesday, January 29

FOMC Meeting Begins

S&P Case-Shiller Price Indices

Consumer Confidence

 

Wednesday, January 30

GDP

Pending Home Sales

 

Gold (Monex)

$1,275.00/ounce down

 

Crude Oil (Brent)

$61.14/brl down

 

U.S. Dollar to...

Euro                      0.8820 up

Japanese Yen  109.7200 up

Chinese Yuan      6.7934 up

Canadian Dollar  1.3358 up

Mexican Peso    19.0850 up

 

6-mo T-Bill Yield    2.51%

Up 2 bps  

10-yr T-Note Yield 2.76%

Up 3 bps

 

11th Dist Cost of Funds, 12/31

1.060 down 19 bps

 

Freddie Mac 30-Year Avg Rate 1/24

4.45% unchg

 

MBA - Mortgage Applications

Index Week ending 1/18

Overall           

Down 2.7%

[Prior week up 13.5%]

Purchase Money Loans

Down 2.0%

[Prior week up 9.0%]

Refinancing Loans

Down 5.0%

[Prior week up 19.0%]

 

Jobless Claims 1/19

199,000 new claims

[Prior week 212,000 rev]

4-week moving avg 215,000 down

 

Existing Home Sales Dec

Down 6.4% MoM

Down 10.3% YoY

4.99M units

Posted in Community News
Jan. 21, 2019

A FULL WEEK OF WEATHER LEFT US WITH PHENOMENAL SKIING!

A Full Week of Weather Left Us with Phenomenal Skiing!

Sugar Bowl Resort 1.21.19

Skiers today were blessed with a true Sierra powder day with a fresh 20" of flulffy snow up high, making the 7-day storm total nearly 8 feet of snow. Needless to say, we have a great base of snow at this point, and the mountains are filling in beautifully. Around town, the scenery sparkles, the snowmen are taller than humans, and the sled hills are filled with the sound of laughter. With a week of sunshine in the forecast, travel will be easy - making this the perfect time to visit our winter wonderland.

Snow Day! 1.17.19

Truckee 1.19.19

Diamond Peak 1.18.

Homewood Mountain Resort 1.19.19

 

Tahoe City 1.18.19 Photo Credit: Ben Arnst, shared by @SquawAlpine

Posted in Community News
Jan. 21, 2019

YOUR WEEKLY INCLINE VILLAGE MARKET REPORT

Incline Village, NV

Mon Jan 21 2019 

This week the median list price for Incline Village, NV is $1,695,000 with the market action index hovering around 24. This is about the same as last month's market action index of 24. Inventory has held steady at or around 29. Click here to stay informed with the Incline Village market!

Market Action Index

The Market Action Index answers the question "How's the Market?" by measuring the current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30 implies Seller's Market conditions. Below 30, conditions favor the buyer.

Slight Buyer's Advantage

Home sales have begun exceeding new inventory. This is a Buyer’s market so prices are not yet moving higher as excess inventory is consumed. If the tightening continues and the market moves into the Seller’s zone, we may see upward pressure on pricing.

The market is hovering around this plateau. Look for a persistent change in the Market Action Index before we see prices deviate from these levels.

Market Segments

Each segment below represents approximately 25% of the market ordered by price.

Posted in Market Updates
Jan. 16, 2019

AS MAJOR URBAN REAL ESTATE MARKETS COOL, LAKE TAHOE’S RESORT MARKETS THRIVE

As Major Urban Real Estate Markets Cool, Lake Tahoe’s Resort Markets Thrive

2018 was a good year for Lake Tahoe, Truckee and the surrounding area real estate market. While major urban and suburban markets experienced a cool down fueled by buyer price exhaustion and supply factors that play into frenzied markets, Northern California and Nevada resort properties remained a popular investment.

The allure of the lake, California’s outdoor lifestyle and Nevada’s tax friendly climate continued to attract buyers and second homeowners across all price points while limited supply created bullish region-wide trends in pricing.

Lake Tahoe waterfront properties featuring new construction, sandy beach, pier and buoys are selling within days of hitting the open market if not before. Pictured: 1170 Vivian, Incline Village $15,950,000. Courtesy: Sierra Sotheby’s International Realty

LAKEFRONT

The regional lakefront market was a bright spot in 2018 with waterfront sales volume on Tahoe’s East Shore doubling from seven sales in 2017 to 14 in 2018.

Lake Tahoe’s North and West Shores generated 35 lakefront sales with eight transactions over $10 million and four sales topping $20 million. The highest priced lakefront sale was an aspirational $40 million property on the West Shore of Tahoe, set on more than nine secluded acres and complimented by an entertainment barn, a two-lane bowling alley, two guest homes, a tennis court, deep water pier, swim platform and boat lift.

Incline Village’s Lakeshore Boulevard boasted the second highest lakefront sale of the year fetching an impressive $36,500,000 in less than a week with multiple offers.

For buyers and sellers, “A premium is always paid for level lots with piers, and secured entitlements,” says Katherina Haug, a North Lake Tahoe-based real estate specialist with Sierra Sotheby’s International Realty. “Proper preparation prior to coming to the market is paramount to achieving full market value,” she adds.

INCLINE VILLAGE

At press time there were eight active and one pending lakefront homes priced up to $39 million in the Incline Village/Crystal Bay area according to Jeffrey Corman, an Incline Village-based agent with Sierra Sotheby’s International Realty. “We continue to see strong showing activity and quality offers on properties with highly sought-after amenities including new construction, sandy beach, pier and buoys which are all available with several properties currently listed.”

In 2017 average days on market for Incline Village lakefront homes was just over two years. In 2018, the listing period was closer to 10 months with a median price of $5.7 million. The median price for non-lakefront single-family homes in Incline Village was $1.2 million with an average of 224 days to sell, while more affordably priced condos were selling in 124 days on average with a median price of $540,000.

Newer homes with modern upgrades are in high demand with Lake Tahoe buyers. Pictured: 5710 Tiger Lily, Sugar Bowl, $3,790,000. Photo by Vance Fox.

EAST SHORE: GLENBROOK, ZEPHYR COVE, STATELINE

While the lakefront market was strong in this region, single-family, non-lakefront sales volume was down by 18 percent combined with an 8 percent dip in median prices. A closer look at this sector reveals that Glenbrook and Zephyr Cove showed signs of cooling while Stateline showed significant double-digit gains in volume and pricing. These contrasting statistics are an example of why it’s important to contact a local real estate specialist to understand the full picture of what’s happening in a market of interest.

TRUCKEE

Popular amenity-rich, luxury neighborhoods such as Martis Camp, Old Greenwood, and Schaffer’s Mill all reported gains in average sale price as volume continued on a steady pace with the prior year. Lahontan was a stand-out in terms of sales volume with 27 homes sold in 2018 as compared to 16 in 2017 with an average sold price of $2.34 million (a 1 percent increase over 2017).

In Truckee’s more modestly priced neighborhoods such as Sierra Meadows where the median home price is $540,000, homes were selling as quickly as 15 days on average. Tahoe Donner single-family homes sold in roughly 41 days with an average sale price of $772,000, a 6 percent increase over 2017. Sales volume for Tahoe Donner was down by 31 percent with 56 homes sold in 2018 versus 81 sold in 2017.

The highest priced sale in Truckee was $11,750,000 in the gated Martis Camp community where average sale price in 2018 was $5.25 million with an average of six months accumulated days on market. The lowest priced sale (excluding land transactions) was a Tahoe Donner studio condo that sold for $75,000.

SOUTH LAKE TAHOE

Generally speaking, South Lake Tahoe homes were selling in roughly 100 days on average in 2018, which was only slightly faster than the prior year. Total non-lakefront sales volume in South Lake Tahoe was down by 7 percent, however, several niche markets such as the Tahoe Keys outpaced 2017 sales despite much ambiguity surrounding the short-term rental market.

“Inventory remains low, and demand stayed strong during the year,” said Amanda Adams, South Lake Tahoe real estate specialist with Sierra Sotheby’s International Realty. “Even with the short-term rental changes in certain neighborhoods, prices have continued to rise for almost the entire South Shore area throughout the year. There are still great opportunities for buyers and sellers in the current market conditions.”

The highest priced sale in South Lake Tahoe in 2018 brought in $5.5 million while the lowest price sale (not including land) was a non-lakefront condo that went for $70,000. The median home price for non-lakefront single-family homes was $466,500 while median lakefront home prices are still under $1 million for the area.

Continued price hikes coupled with a dip in sales volume suggests that demand continues to outpace inventory in many neighborhoods throughout Reno-Tahoe. Pictured: 38 W Lightening Ranch Road, Washoe Valley. Photo courtesy Sierra Sotheby’s International Realty.

RENO /CARSON VALLEY

Sales volume for single-family homes in the Southwest Reno market was off by 11 percent in 2018 however, the average sales price was up by a solid 19 percent. The Northwest Foothills area saw 12 percent price gains, South Suburban prices went up 15 percent and South Meadows and Sparks each gained 13 percent. This trend suggests a continued gap in supply for the region.

Average days on market for Reno ranged from 70 days to five months depending on the neighborhood. Buyers in search of aggressively priced first homes or investment properties should be prepared to act quickly.

According to Randy Roesch, with Sierra Sotheby’s International Realty’s Reno office, “The higher end of the Reno market is much more balanced with certain top-tier price points even falling into a buyers market. Top-of-the-market buyers have plenty of inventory to choose from so sellers at this level need to price their homes competitively or be comfortable waiting to attract the right buyers,” says Roesch.

With an average sale price of $366,791, nearby Carson City stood out as a value-buy for Northern Nevada in 2018. Carson Valley markets including Gardnerville, Genoa and Minden all recorded a slow down in transactions coupled with an uptick in sales prices.

PLUMAS COUNTY

Encompassing an area of sleepy ranch neighborhoods and thriving golf course communities, Portola represents the highest concentration of sales activity for this region. With an average sale price of $158,665, Portola recorded 34 single-family homes sold in 2018 versus 33 in 2017. The Plumas Pines Golf Course area came in second in sales volume with 27 homes sold in 2018, a 35 percent uptick from 2017. Graeagle was a close third in volume with 23 sales and an average sale price of $503,500. The region continues to be popular with buyers who are looking for a quiet, wooded setting with both golf course amenities and mom-and-pop shops.

SIERRA FOOTHILLS

Located just 40 minutes west of Truckee along Highway 20, the Sierra Foothills market did not show signs of buyer pull-back in 2018 with homes in both Nevada City and Grass Valley selling in fewer than 60 days on average with sale price ranging from $290,000 to $600,000 depending on the niche neighborhood. Most Sierra Foothills neighborhoods saw single digit price increases in 2018.

As interest rates continue to be a hot topic, second home/ resort markets remain fairly insulated from the effects of nominal rate hikes. And with winter off to a healthy start in the Sierra, we can anticipate another prosperous real estate climate in 2019 with a bustling and balanced market that benefits everyone.

The data in this report was collected via six regional multiple listings services. To see all pricing and sales volume for Reno, Lake Tahoe or surrounding areas broken down by a specific resort community or neighborhoods visit tahoemicroreports.com.

 

Posted in Real Estate News
Jan. 14, 2019

YEAR-END BLOCKBUSTER REPORT ~ JANUARY 11, 2019

Year-End Blockbuster Report ~ January 11, 2019

The December Employment Situation report was a total blockbuster. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 312,000 jobs were created during the month, the strongest showing since February 2017. Analysts had much lower expectations; theEconoday consensus of 180,000 was typical. There were also upward revisions to the previous two months' numbers including an additional 21,000 jobs added to the dismal November estimate of 155,000.

Construction was the big winner with 38,000 new jobs, which we can hope will translate into more new home construction, and wages rose 0.4% from November and 3.2% year over year, the best showing since last December and one of the highest of the recovery.

The unemployment rate ticked up from 3.7 to 3.9%, but this was also good news. It reflected an increase in those looking for work--that number climbed from 6.018 million to 6.294 million--many of whom were discouraged workers now returning to the hunt.

Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan said the report "should help soothe fears of a marked slowdown in the economy." However, he also notes that it gives the Federal Reserve "more room to stick with its projected two rate hikes for this year."

Naughty & Nice

The stock market continued its volatility this week, but with nowhere near the wild swings it suffered over the holidays. The Dow has resumed an upward trend and at this very moment (subject of course to immediate change) has gained back about 400 points since January 1st.

As Wall Street settles down, investors tend to stop worrying about safety and return to stocks. Consequently, yields on Treasury notes and bonds have started to inch back up, but mortgage rates have not followed suit. Freddie Mac says this week's 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit a nine-month low.

If you are in the market to buy a home, there is more good news in Black Knight's current Mortgage Monitor. While home prices are still rising, the company's Home Price Index is marking significantly smaller increases than this time last year. From annual growth of 6.7% in February, the rate of appreciation had dropped to 5.4% by October.

Growth has slowed in 33 states and 71 metro areas, and nowhere is this slowdown more apparent than in the West, especially California. Over the same period, annual growth in the state moderated from 10% to 4.9%. For the first time since the recovery began, California has slower appreciation than the nation as a whole.

Key Indicators

ISM Non-Mfg Index Dec

57.6

[Prior 60.7]

 

JOLTs Nov

6.888M Job Openings

[Prior 7.131M rev]

 

Coming Indicators

Friday, January 11

CPI

 

Wednesday, January 16

Retail Sales

Housing Market Index

 

Thursday, January 17

Residential Construction

 

Gold (Monex)

$1,292.00/ounce up

 

Crude Oil (Brent)

$61.44/brl up

 

U.S. Dollar to...

Euro                      0.8670 down

Japanese Yen  108.0800 up

Chinese Yuan      6.7841 down

Canadian Dollar  1.3219 down

Mexican Peso    19.2370 down

 

6-mo T-Bill Yield    2.52%

Up 1 bp  

10-yr T-Note Yield 2.74%

Up 9 bps

 

11th Dist Cost of Funds, 12/31

1.060 down 19 bps

 

Freddie Mac 30-Year

Avg Rate 1/10

4.45% down 6 bps

 

MBA - Mortgage Applications

Index Week ending 1/4

Overall           

Up 23.5%

[Prior week down 9.8%]

Purchase Money Loans

Up 17.0%

[Prior week down 8.0%]

Refinancing Loans

Up 35.0%

[Prior week down 12.0%]

 

Jobless Claims 1/5

216,000 new claims

[Prior week 233,000 rev]

4-week moving avg 221,750 up

 

Employment Situation Dec

312,000 New Jobs Created

[Prior 176,000 rev]

Unemployment Rate 3.9%

Posted in Market Updates
Jan. 14, 2019

NEW SHORELINE APPLICATIONS AVAILABLE

New Shoreline Applications Available

The Tahoe Regional Planning Agency has released a series of updated permit applications for shorezone projects and activities under the recently-adopted Shoreline Plan that is taking effect this year. Shorezone applications now available online at http://www.trpa.org/permitting/permit-applications/ include:

Express Check applications for expedited TRPA review of in-kind shorezone structure reconstructions

Declarations for exempt and qualified exempt activities that do not require a TRPA permit but must be declared, including repair and maintenance of existing shorezone structures

A general shorezone application for concessions, pier expansions and modifications, boat ramps, shoreline protective structures, floating platforms, beach raking, and lakebed dredging and filling activities

An information packet on the application process for new piers

Adopted by TRPA’s Governing Board in October 2018, the Shoreline Plan lifts a longstanding moratorium on new shorezone structures including private piers and buoys at Lake Tahoe. The plan authorizes up to 12 private piers permitted every two years with a cap at 128 new private piers.

The new pier information packet provides more details about applying for a new pier. TRPA will accept applications for new piers between June 1 and June 30, 2019 and will select up to 12 new pier applications by July 17, 2019 to move forward through the permitting process. Private piers serving multiple parcels will be scored for consideration based on criteria in the TRPA Code of Ordinances, while private piers serving only one parcel will be selected for consideration through a new lottery system.

The Shoreline Plan also requires existing buoys to be registered with TRPA starting March 1, 2019. TRPA is creating a portal on the website https://LakeTahoeInfo.org where people will be able to register buoys online and pay annual buoy registration fees and scenic impact fees.

Property owners will be able to register existing buoys starting this March if they have a buoy permit from Nevada Division of State Lands, California State Lands Commission, or the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers; if they applied for a buoy permit from TRPA between 2008 and 2010; or if they can provide proof that a buoy was in place prior to 1972.

More information on registering existing buoys will be released in coming weeks as the new registration system is put in place. Applications for new buoys at Tahoe will not be accepted by TRPA until March 1, 2020.

Posted in Community News
Jan. 11, 2019

INCLINE VILLAGE MARKET REPORT

Incline Village, NV 89451

Fri Jan 11 2019 

This week the median list price for Incline Village, NV 89451 is $1,622,500 with the market action index hovering around 22. This is less than last month's market action index of 28. Inventory has held steady at or around 30. Click here to stay informed with the Incline Village market!

 

Market Action Index

The Market Action Index answers the question "How's the Market?" by measuring the current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30 implies Seller's Market conditions. Below 30, conditions favor the buyer.

Slight Buyer's Advantage

The Market Action Index has been trending lower for several weeks while prices have remained relatively stable. If inventory continues to grow relative to demand however, it is likely that we will see downward pressure on pricing.

Again this week we see prices in this zip code remain roughly at the level they’ve been for several weeks. Since we’re significantly below the top of the market, look for a persistent up-shift in the Market Action Index before we see prices move from these levels.

Market Segments

Each segment below represents approximately 25% of the market ordered by price.

Posted in Market Updates
Jan. 11, 2019

TAHOE RENO 2018 YEAR-END REAL ESTATE DATA

2018 Year-End Real Estate Market Reports

2018 was a good year for Lake Tahoe, Truckee and the surrounding area real estate market. While major urban and suburban markets experienced a cool down fueled by buyer price exhaustion and supply factors that play into frenzied markets, Northern California and Nevada resort properties remained a popular investment.

As interest rates continue to be a hot topic, second home/ resort markets remain fairly insulated from the effects of nominal rate hikes. And with winter off to a healthy start in the Sierra, we can anticipate another prosperous real estate

climate in 2019 with a bustling and balanced market that benefits everyone.

CLICK ON THE LINKS BELOW TO REVIEW MARKET TRENDS BY NEIGHBORHOOD 

 

EAST SHORE 

 INCLINE VILLAGE 

 NORTH & WEST SHORE  

RENO / SPARKS 

 SOUTH LAKE 

 TRUCKEE 

 SIERRA / PLUMAS COUNTY

CARSON VALLEY 

 SIERRA FOOTHILLS

 

If your community of interest is not listed or you’re unsure what the data means for your situation, please don't hesitate to contact me.  Data was compiled from six multiple listing services and is current as of January 9, 2019. The information is deemed reliable but has not been verified. 

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Posted in Real Estate News
Dec. 31, 2018

INCLINE VILLAGE MARKET REPORT

Incline Village, NV 89451

Mon Dec 31 2018 

This week the median list price for Incline Village, NV 89451 is $1,622,500 with the market action index hovering around 24. This is less than last month's market action index of 29. Inventory has held steady at or around 30. Click here to stay informed with the Incline Village market!

 

Market Action Index

The Market Action Index answers the question "How's the Market?" by measuring the current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30 implies Seller's Market conditions. Below 30, conditions favor the buyer.

Slight Buyer's Advantage

 

The Market Action Index has been trending lower for several weeks while prices have remained relatively stable. If inventory continues to grow relative to demand however, it is likely that we will see downward pressure on pricing.

Again this week we see prices in this zip code remain roughly at the level they’ve been for several weeks. Since we’re significantly below the top of the market, look for a persistent up-shift in the Market Action Index before we see prices move from these levels.

Market Segments

Each segment below represents approximately 25% of the market ordered by price.

Posted in Market Updates
Dec. 29, 2018

REAL ESTATE AND MORTGAGE RATES - LAST WEEK IN REVIEW AND FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index

The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for October saw a rise of +.4% vs. the prior month, a larger than expected increase. Looking back at September’s monthly growth, we have a positive revision to +.7% from the previously reported +.3%. However, if we look year-over-year, the rate has still declined to +5.0% from a previous +5.2%. This now marks the seventh month in a row where the annual rate is down from the peak of +6.8% back in March. Diving into the report, 18 of 20 cities saw price increases, with Las Vegas (+.8%) leading the charge. The two declining cities in October were San Francisco (-.6%) and Seattle (-.3%).

Pending Home Sales

The NAR’s pending home sales index for November decreased 0.7% vs. the prior month. Economists forecasted an increase in the index of 0.7%, a sizeable miss. The index is down 7.7% year-over-year. Activity in the Northeast and West saw increases in their respective regions, while the Midwest and South are down over 2% month-over-month. This index is a leading indicator of housing activity, which shows further weakness in US housing.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index, which measures consumer confidence based on 5,000 households, came in weaker than expected at 128.1 vs. 133.5, adding fear of economic slowdown. The October reading of 137.9 was the highest since 2000. December’s index is elevated, but the index has fallen from October’s highs the past two months, leading to more concerns of an economic slowdown.

Posted in Real Estate News