MARKET UPDATE

After a slow June and July, Housing Starts shot up 9.2% in August, to a 1.282 million annual rate. And single-family starts are up 5.7% for the first eight months of 2018 compared to the same period last year.

Existing Home Sales held steady in August, but that's a positive after four months of declines. Supply is finally turning around, as inventory rose year-over-year for the first time in 38 months!

Freddie Mac's chief economist observed, "Amidst this four-week climb in interest rates, the welcoming news is that purchase applications have risen on an annual basis for five consecutive weeks." Demand stays strong.

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

BACK TO BREAKING RECORDS... Though the tech-y Nasdaq lagged, the Dow and the S&P 500 hit new heights, driven by improving economic data indicating strong economic growth.

"Trade tensions" sound scary in the media, but tariffs have been mild and investors see they've had little effect on the economy. One economist calculated tariffs may add 0.1% overall to wholesale prices.

The Philly Fed index nearly doubled in September, signaling growing optimism from East Coast manufacturers. Initial jobless claims fell to their lowest read since 1969 and the Leading Economic Index suggested solid growth ahead.

The week ended with the Dow UP 2.3%, to 26744; the S&P 500 UP 0.8%, to 2930; but the Nasdaq was down 0.3%, to 7987.

In bonds, longer-dated notes posted losses for the fourth week in a row. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended down .27, at $100.84. Consequently, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate drifted up for the fourth straight week. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?... Despite increasing rates, mortgage applications rose last week, with the unadjusted Purchase Index up 9% from the week before, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST

NEW HOME SALES, GDP UP, PENDING HOME SALES OFF, INFLATION MILD, THE FED HIKES... August New Home Sales are forecast up, but the Pending Home Sales index for existing homes should slide. The GDP-Third Estimate is predicted to have the economy booming at 4.3% growth, while Core PCE Pricesshow inflation is still benign. The FOMC Rate Decision is 100% expected to be a hike, so the focus will be on the Fed's rate forecast, particularly for 2019.

NOTE: Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and higher loan rates.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... Literally everyone sees a quarter percent rate hike on Wednesday. Then no move is forecast for November, but a final one to end the year. Note: In the lower chart, a 100% probability of change is a 0% probability the rate will stay the same.

MARKET UPDATE

Black Knight reports that in Q2 this year, tappable equity for homeowners with mortgages passed $6 trillion for the first time in history. And this happened even with the recent slowdown in home price growth.

Freddie Mac's chief economist thinks the "spectacular stretch of solid job gains and low unemployment should help keep homebuyer interest elevated. However, mortgage rates will likely also move up."

This doesn't worry the chief economist at a large regional real estate firm, since "low unemployment rates encourage employers to raise wages," which can cover higher loan costs. He also sees "more homes coming on the market."

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

STOCKS REBOUND OFF BOOMING ECONOMY... Stocks returned to their winning ways as investors saw tariff threats as negotiating tactics and focused instead on growth in corporate earnings and the overall economy.

Industrial Production set a new record high, Retail Sales are up a strong 6.6% from a year ago, and Americans' confidence in the U.S. economy and in their own well-being stands near a 14-year high.

Plus, workers are actually doing better than corporations. Since the end of last year, total wages have increased by a $200 billion annual rate, while corporate profits were up by just $100 billion annualized!

The week ended with the Dow UP 0.9%, to 26155; the S&P 500 UP 1.2%, to 2905; and the Nasdaq UP 1.4%, to 8010.

Bond prices dipped for the week after all the good economic data. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended down .34, at $101.11. Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey saw the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate up for the third week in a row. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?... PropertyShark reports 83% of Generation Z (born1995 to 2010) plans to buy a home in the next five years and get this: the 'Instagram Generation' would sacrifice location and commuting distance for size and amenities.

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST

NEW HOMES GOING UP, EXISTING HOMES SELLING... August Housing Starts are expected to shoot past a 1.2 million annual rate. Existing Home Sales should also spring back to a 5.37 million yearly pace.

NOTE: Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and higher loan rates.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... The Fed futures market is dead certain about a rate hike a week from Wednesday, but it sees no moves again until December. Note: In the lower chart, a 100% probability of change is a 0% probability the rate will stay the same.

MARKET UPDATE

Construction spending in July landed a healthy 5.8% above where it was a year ago. In line with this, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) pegged builder confidence at a still high 67.

The NAHB Chairman explained, "builders continue to report strong demand for new housing, fueled by steady job and income growth along with rising household formations."

In Freddie Mac's August Forecast, their chief economist noted, "the good news is that purchase mortgage applications have recently rebounded to above year-ago levels."

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

RALLY ENDS... Wall Street staged an end-of-summer sale, as prices dropped on all three indexes. Some blamed it on trade worries, but the economic data stayed strong, so it could have just been profit taking after the three-week rally.

The red-hot ISM Manufacturing index hit its highest level since 2004, while ISM Services also came in well above expectations. Initial jobless claims fell to 203,000, the fewest since 1969!

August's Employment Report showed 201,000 more jobs. Wages are up 2.9% the past year, their biggest gain yet in the economic recovery. With total hours worked up 2.1%, total cash earnings are up 5.1% from a year ago.

The week ended with the Dow down 0.2%, to 25917; the S&P 500 down 1.0%, to 2872, and the Nasdaq down 2.6%, to 7903.

Friday's strong jobs report sent bonds south for the week. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended down .36, at $101.45. Yet the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased marginally in Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?... Realtor.com reports 80% of homebuyers surveyed were pet owners and 79% said they would pass on a dream home that didn't work for their pets.

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST

INFLATION COOL, RETAIL WARM... Inflation by the Consumer Price Index (CPI)isn't expected to heat up, remaining pretty much within the Fed's target range. Retail Sales, on the other hand, should stay warm, up a nice 0.4% for August.

NOTE: Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

MARKET UPDATE

The Pending Home Sales index edged down 0.7% in July, but this was after a 1.0% jump in June. Some economists say these numbers point to a small gain in August existing home sales.

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 0.3% in June. But First American's chief economist feels "price appreciation may be slowing" with "a natural moderation in home prices, rather than a sharp decline."

Freddie Mac's chief economist adds, "the economy and the labor market are very healthy right now, and mortgage rates have stabilized.... These factors should continue to create...an uptick in sales."

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

SETTING MORE RECORDS... The S&P 500 ended above 2900 and the Nasdaq soared past 8,000 for the first time ever. Progress on trade helped, but the big drivers were strong corporate earnings and economic fundamentals.

Need examples? The second read on Q2 GDP moved economic growth up to 4.2%. Or how about Consumer Confidence--now at its highest level in 18 years.

Consumers are no doubt delighted to see their disposable income (income after taxes) up 5.3% from a year ago. That's sent personal spending up 5.2% the past year to help to boost the economy.

The week ended with the Dow UP 0.7%, to 25965; the S&P 500 UP 0.9%, to 2902, and the Nasdaq UP 2.1%, to 8110.

Longer-dated bonds fell as stocks rose. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended down.17, at $101.81. Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey saw the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate barely move up. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?... A mortgage insurance company reports first-time homebuyers now account for 55% of mortgages originated.

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST

MORE FACTORY ACTIVITY, MORE JOBS... U.S. financial markets were closed yesterday for Labor Day, leaving us with a shortened trading week featuring two key economic reports. Manufacturing and employment have shown new strength the past year and that's expected to continue in August's ISM Index of manufacturing and monthly Employment Report.

NOTE: Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... A quarter percent rate hike this month is now a near certainty, with a second one seen for the end of the year. Note: In the lower chart, a 98% probability of change is only a 2% probability the rate will stay the same.

FOOD, WINE & ART IN THE SIERRA

Labor Day Weekend has come and gone but the fun isn't over. Some of the Sierra's best Food, Wine and Art celebrations are still right around the corner. 

FEATURED HAPPENINGS

September 7- 9

Lake Tahoe Autumn Food & Wine Fest

Northstar California

The premier 3-day food and wine event in North Lake Tahoe at Northstar California Resort. Cooking classes, wine tasting, outdoor

adventures, and Sunday's Grand Tasting Finale.

READ MORE>>>

September 8-9

Trails and Vistas Art Hikes

Donner Summit

Guided 2.5-3 hour art hikes featuring an

enchanted forest setting on Donner Summit with

installation art, music, poetry, and dance. 

READ MORE>>>

September 15

Sample the Sierra

South Lake Tahoe

This event brings together local chefs/restaurants with neighboring growers/producers to turn out scrumptious samples craftily paired with the appropriate wine or brew. 

READ MORE>>> 

September 15

Art & Soul Artwalk

Downtown Truckee

Join Sierra Sotheby's International Realty as one of 30 stops celebrating local artists. Enjoy live art demonstrations and music while tasting your way through small bites, craft beer and wines.

READ MORE>>> 

September 29

Anne Brigman: The Symposium

Nevada Museum of Art

Rediscover the life and art of Anne Brigman, whose work in the Sierra in the early 1900s was ground-breaking for its time. 

READ MORE>>>

IN THE NEWS

Rare Ferrari 250 GTO Sells for Record $48.4 Million

READ MORE>>>

Auction Preview: The Soundtrack of the Swinging 60s

CHRIS SMITH, ALI AND THE BEATLES , 1964. ESTIMATE £10,000–15,000.

READ MORE>>>

Sotheby's International Realty Gives Back with New Story

New Story recently made headlines with the launch of a 3D printer, made possible through the support of the Sotheby's International Realty brand. It is the first permitted 3D printer to build homes in the developing world and is scheduled to start efficiently building safe homes in El Salvador soon.

READ MORE>>>

MARKET UPDATE

New Home Sales slid 1.7% in July to a 627,000 yearly rate, off for the second straight month. But the housing recovery holds: sales for the first seven months of 2018 are up a healthy 7% over 2017.

Existing Home Sales slipped 0.7% in July to 5.34 million units annually, off now four straight months. But the decline in inventories reversed, coming in unchanged versus a year ago for the first time in 37 months!

Buyers may also be encouraged by the fact that although home prices rose in Q2, they did so at the slowest pace in four years for purchases financed with conventional (FHFA) mortgages.

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

NEW HEIGHTS... The Dow gained a decent 0.5%, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit new highs, as trade and politics took a back seat to Fed Chairman Powell's comments, economic data and strong corporate earnings.

At the Fed's symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Powell said "the current path of gradually raising interest rates" would keep the economy growing without overheating and prevent inflation from overshooting its target range.

One more measure of the strengthening economy is Durable Goods Orders, up 9.2% overall from a year ago. Gains were widespread, though the volatile transportation sector pulled down July's overall read.

The week ended with the Dow UP 0.5%, to 25790; the S&P 500 UP 0.9%, to 2875, and the Nasdaq UP 1.7%, to 7946.

Bonds fell as investors flocked to stocks, but the Fed chair's speech brought prices back up on Friday. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended up .15, to $101.98. In Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell for the third week in a row. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

Here's your monthly National housing stats video. Please feel free to share. Thanks,

MARKET UPDATE

Housing Starts scored a disappointingly small gain in July, but they're very volatile month to month. So, comparing the year-to-date pace with the same period in 2017 finds starts are up 5.9% from a year ago.

There's lots of yak about builders being down about labor shortages and materials costs. But Building Permits are increasing at a faster rate than Starts and strong buyer demand keeps builder confidence historically high.

Freddie Mac's chief economist observed that mortgage rates have been mostly flat since late spring, but "this pause in rates is not leading to increasing home sales." Buyers who can act probably should while rates are at rest.

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

CHOPPY... Equities took investors on a bumpy ride before finishing with the Dow and S&P 500 up, and the Nasdaq off a tad. Turkish financial turmoil was the drag, while strong corporate earnings and progress with U.S.-China trade talks sent stocks skyward.

We also got more evidence of increasing economic growth. Retail Sales jumped 0.5% in July and are up 6.4% from a year ago. The Philly Fed and NY Empire State indexes showed continued optimism among East Coast manufacturers. Total industrial production saw its largest annual gain in six years.

Initial jobless claims dropped to 212,000, only 4,000 more than the lowest read since 1969 when we had a smaller workforce. Finally, analysts said July's 0.6% gain in the Leading Economic Index points to sustained economic expansion for the foreseeable future.

The week ended with the Dow UP 1.4%, to 25669; the S&P 500 UP 0.6%, to 2850, and the Nasdaq down 0.3%, to 7816.

Bonds ended the week on a flat note as prices dipped on positive trade news. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended up just .02, to $101.83. For all the hand wringing over rising rates, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped again in Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?... First American's chief economist calculates that if mortgage rates doubled from current levels, home sales nationally would drop by a mere 5% (300,000 units).

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST

LOOKING AT JULY HOME SALES, LISTENING TO THE FED... We'll get the complete picture of July's real estate transactions, with Wednesday's Existing Home Sales expected to be up a tick and Thursday's New Home Sales up a bit more than that. We'll also eavesdrop on the Fed's August meet, with the release of FOMC Minutes. Will we get clues about forthcoming rate moves?

NOTE: Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...Opinions are firming up that we'll see a quarter percent rate hike next month, none in November, then another one ending the year. Note: In the lower chart, a 96% probability of change is only a 4% probability the rate will stay the same.

SAVOR SUMMER IN THE SIERRA

Don't let summer slip away without a dip in the Lake, a quite hike in the woods or a day with friends and family in the great outdoors.

Sierra Sotheby's International Realty takes pride in matching extraordinary buyers and sellers. Here's a look at some spectacular pairings that took place during the first half of 2018 (January through June)

including historic transactions and record breaking sales. 

Read More>>>

Below are a few suggestions to help you make the most of summer in the Sierra.  

Lake Tahoe Concours d'Elegance

Aug 10-11 | Homewood 

This year’s 46th annual Concours will again be staged at the historic Obexer’s Boat Company in 

Homewood, CA., on Lake Tahoe’s beautiful West Shore with the two-day show open to the public on 

Friday and Saturday.

Hot August Nights

Aug 6-11 | Reno

Experience the largest classic car show in the world with events throughout Reno and Sparks including  concerts, auctions, classic car cruises, show and shines, parties and so much more... 

Lake Tahoe Shakespeare Festival

July 6- Aug 26, Sand Harbor

This year's playbook features both Shakespeare's Macbeth or the off-broadway hit Beehive. Call 800.74.SHOWS and mention Sierra Sotheby's for $5 off.

Parasol Foundation Community Table Dinner

September 7 | Shakepeare Ranch, Glenbrook 

Sierra Sotheby's International Realty is honored to once again sponsor this culinary fundraiser.  This year's featured chef is Chef Dustin Valette of Healdsburg's award winning Valette.

>> Market Update

QUOTATION OF THE WEEK..."Don't talk about yourself; it will be done when you leave." --Wilson Mizner, American playwright

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE...The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports the median single-family home price edged up to $269,000 in Q2, a 5.3% gain year-over-year. The median family income also rose, to $75,106, though we'd like to see it up some more.

Tight supply at certain price points is a drag on home sales in certain markets. But overall, the NAR notes Q2 saw a 0.5% year-over-year spike in available homes, to 1.95 million units. So reports of a housing market slowdown seem a bit premature.

About 40% of Americans feel buying a home is the most stressful event in modern life, according to homes.com. Their senior content manager says "they are looking for guidance and assistance," which of course is where we all come in.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... A great time to get a referral is when you're wrapping up business with clients. If they're happy with what you delivered, ask if they know anyone else who might need your services.

>> Review of Last Week

TURKEY... A drop in the Turkish lira made the week a turkey for investors. Worries over how the lira's dive would impact European banks with Turkish exposure sent the Dow and S&P 500 south for the week, though the tech-y Nasdaq headed up.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) pegged inflation at 0.2% in July. Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is up 2.4% the past 12 months. Many think this could mean two more rate hikes from the Fed this year.

Initial jobless claims sank to 213,000, while continuing claims remain in 1.7 million territory.Economists say these numbers point to a healthy rate of job creation--key to the health of the real estate market.

The week ended with the Dow down 0.6%, to 25313; the S&P 500 down 0.2%, to 2833, and the Nasdaq UP 0.3%, to 7839.

Bonds benefited from the flight to safety after Turkey's currency probs. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended up .14, to $101.81. Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate inched lower. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?... Realtor.com says smoking in a home can reduce its resale value up to 29%. For more on this, including tips to get of cigarette odor, click here.

>> This Week's Forecast

HOME BUILDING, RETAIL SALES, MANUFACTURING ALL GROW... The big economic reports this week all forecast continued growth. Housing Starts and Building Permits should show nice gains. Retail Sales are predicted up a tad overall and more than a tad excluding volatile auto sales. The Philadelphia Fed Index is expected to indicate solid expansion of factory activity in that key region

>> The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.