Incline Village at Lake Tahoe, Nevada Real Estate and Community News

Oct. 8, 2018

REAL ESTATE AND MORTGAGE RATES - LAST WEEK IN REVIEW AND FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK

MARKET UPDATE

Realtor.com reports 465,000 new listings hit the market in September, up 8% from the year before, the largest annual gain in five years. The hot sales pace left inventory flat, but it's expected to increase soon.

Prices are already beginning to moderate, as the August CoreLogic Insights report posted a 5.5% annual gain, the slowest year-over-year home price growth in almost two years.

Even the number of homes selling above list is falling. An online real estate database reports that in September, 22.9% of homes sold above asking, down from 29% in June.

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

ECONOMY UP, STOCKS DOWN... Rising stocks usually mean a rising economy (that's why we watch them), but last week's good economic data made traders worry the Fed may raise rates faster, which sent stocks down.

Good stuff included the read on the huge services sector of our economy that unexpectedly jumped to its highest level in more than 20 years, while the manufacturing index fell just a tad from August's 14-year high.

September saw a lower than expected 134,000 new jobs, but 87,000 were added to July and August numbers, total cash earnings rose 5.4% the past year and the unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, the lowest in 49 years!

The week ended with the Dow down 11 points, to 26447; the S&P 500 down 1.0%, to 2886; and the Nasdaq down 3.2%, to 7788.

Bond prices sank, sending yields up, also making traders worried over rates. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended down .94, to $99.97. Yet the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate inched back in Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?... Goldman Sachs economist Daan Struyven claims little chance of recession in the next three years. He said, "the model still classifies the expansion as mid-cycle."

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST

INFLATION EDGES UP, BUT NOT MUCH... The key reads this week are on inflation. Both the wholesale Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Indexare expected to drift up, but not much higher than the Fed's 2% annual target. That should keep the central bank (and Wall Street) calm about rates for now.

NOTE: Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and higher loan rates.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... The consensus feels the Fed will sit on the present rate in November, do another quarter percent hike in December, then hold in January. Note: In the lower chart, a 5% probability of change is a 95% probability the rate will stay the same.

Posted in Real Estate News
Oct. 1, 2018

SWEET DAYS OF AUTUMN IN THE SIERRA

The Sweet Days of Autumn in the Sierra

For many locals, autumn is a favorite time of the year in the Sierra. Enjoy warm days coupled with cools nights, colorful hikes, calm waters and dining specials at your favorite restaurants. 

October 6

Truckee Wine Walk & Shop

Downtown Truckee

 

Join Sierra Sotheby's International Realty as you sip, eat and shop your way through Downtown Truckee during this popular annual event.

 

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October  6-7

The Great Reno Italian Festival

Downtown Reno

 

A celebration of Italian culture and traditions 

including live entertainment, a sauce cooking

contest and of course, pasta – lots of pasta.

 

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October 6-7

Kokanee Salmon Festival

Taylor Creek, South Lake Tahoe

 

Celebrate the annual fall migration of the Kokanee salmon during the Fall Fish Fest at the Taylor Creek Visitor Center, Lake Tahoe.

 

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October 6-7

Oktoberfest

Camp Richardson, South Lake Tahoe

 

Enjoy great food, music, family games and

activities, and a famous Beer and Wine Garden during this free family-friendly event.  

 

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October 12-14

Lake Tahoe Marathon Week

Throughout Lake Tahoe

 

Three days of running and fun with something for your whole family, club or group of friends at one of the most beautiful destinations in the world.

 

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October 13-14

Blue Angels at the Minden Airport

Minden

 

U.S. Navy Blue Angels to Perform During the

Aviation Round-up at the Minden Tahoe Airport 2018 Aviation Roundup Airshow. 

 

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Lake Tahoe's First Via Ferrata Opens at Squaw Valley 

Via Ferrata, an Italian term meaning Iron Road, is a protected climbing route with

permanent steel anchors and cables that allow participants to be safely connected to the rock via a Continuous Lifeline System. 

 

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Underwater Heritage Trail Opens at Emerald Bay

California's first underwater trail. The trail is devoted to showcasing Lake Tahoe's historic recreational watercraft and barges resting below the surface of Emerald Bay. Scuba and snorkel diving visitors can explore the underwater "trail" of historic features at

several sites along the shoreline.

 

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Sotheby's Auction: Important Watches 

Sotheby's is proud to present the Autumn Important Watches Sale in Hong Kong October 2-5, 2018 featuring a carefully selected collection of 436 fine contemporary and vintage timepieces from renowned brands including Patek Philippe, Rolex, Audemars Piguet and A. Lange & Söhne to independent watchmakers such as F.P. Journe and Greubel Forsey. 

READ MORE>>>

 

434 Valerie Court Incline Village $3,995,000

 

Property Details >

638 Fairview Blvd. Incline Village $3,248,000

 

Property Details >

431 Valerie Court Incline Village $3,998,000

 

Property Details >

Posted in Community News
Oct. 1, 2018

REAL ESTATE AND MORTGAGE RATES - LAST WEEK IN REVIEW AND FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK

MARKET UPDATE

New Home Sales went up 3.5% in August, though most of the gain came from a downward revision to July. Yet the trend is higher: sales the first eight months of this year are up 6.8% from the same period in 2017.

But Pending Homes Sales slipped 1.8% in August. Supply is the prob, as folks hang onto their homes. The median age of homes went from 31 years in 2005 to 37 years in 2016.

Despite rising mortgage rates, First American's chief economist feels the strong economy will support demand: "While the pace of sales may initially slow, home buyers typically adjust to the new rate environment."

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

HOT QUARTER, COOL WEEK... Stocks wrapped up Q3 posting their hottest quarterly gains since 2013, though the Dow and the S&P 500 cooled for the week, while the Nasdaq stayed warm.

Dampening the festivities were trade worries, rising oil prices and Italy's projected deficit increasing to 2.4% of GDP. We also had the expected quarter percent hike from the Fed who say they'll proceed at a moderate pace.

Meanwhile, the economy booms: GDP growth at 4.2% in Q2 and on track for the best year since 2005; personal income up 4.7% the past year; and the National Federation of Independent Business optimism index at a 35-year high.

The week ended with the Dow down 1.1%, to 26458; the S&P 500 down 0.5%, to 2914; but the Nasdaq was UP 0.7%, to 8046.

Bonds benefited with the flight to quality from Italy's molto grande deficit. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended UP .07, at $100.91. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate up again. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?... The National Association of Realtors reports that in 2017 only 9% of buyers found their agents online, the same as in 2008. Despite their growing online activities, 91% of buyers still hire agents through personal referrals.

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST

THE BEAT GOES ON: MANUFACTURING, SERVICES, JOBS ALL GAIN... Economists predict the ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services indexes will show strong expansion in September, though slightly less than the month prior. They also expect Hurricane Florence to temporarily trim growth in Nonfarm Payrolls, but still see more than 180,000 new jobs created.

NOTE: Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and higher loan rates.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... The futures market expects last week's rate hike to hold in November, with another small hike in December which will hold in January. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% probability the rate will stay the same.

Posted in Real Estate News
Sept. 25, 2018

REAL ESTATE AND MORTGAGE RATES - LAST WEEK IN REVIEW AND FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK

MARKET UPDATE

After a slow June and July, Housing Starts shot up 9.2% in August, to a 1.282 million annual rate. And single-family starts are up 5.7% for the first eight months of 2018 compared to the same period last year.

Existing Home Sales held steady in August, but that's a positive after four months of declines. Supply is finally turning around, as inventory rose year-over-year for the first time in 38 months!

Freddie Mac's chief economist observed, "Amidst this four-week climb in interest rates, the welcoming news is that purchase applications have risen on an annual basis for five consecutive weeks." Demand stays strong.

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

BACK TO BREAKING RECORDS... Though the tech-y Nasdaq lagged, the Dow and the S&P 500 hit new heights, driven by improving economic data indicating strong economic growth.

"Trade tensions" sound scary in the media, but tariffs have been mild and investors see they've had little effect on the economy. One economist calculated tariffs may add 0.1% overall to wholesale prices.

The Philly Fed index nearly doubled in September, signaling growing optimism from East Coast manufacturers. Initial jobless claims fell to their lowest read since 1969 and the Leading Economic Index suggested solid growth ahead.

The week ended with the Dow UP 2.3%, to 26744; the S&P 500 UP 0.8%, to 2930; but the Nasdaq was down 0.3%, to 7987.

In bonds, longer-dated notes posted losses for the fourth week in a row. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended down .27, at $100.84. Consequently, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate drifted up for the fourth straight week. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?... Despite increasing rates, mortgage applications rose last week, with the unadjusted Purchase Index up 9% from the week before, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST

NEW HOME SALES, GDP UP, PENDING HOME SALES OFF, INFLATION MILD, THE FED HIKES... August New Home Sales are forecast up, but the Pending Home Sales index for existing homes should slide. The GDP-Third Estimate is predicted to have the economy booming at 4.3% growth, while Core PCE Pricesshow inflation is still benign. The FOMC Rate Decision is 100% expected to be a hike, so the focus will be on the Fed's rate forecast, particularly for 2019.

NOTE: Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and higher loan rates.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... Literally everyone sees a quarter percent rate hike on Wednesday. Then no move is forecast for November, but a final one to end the year. Note: In the lower chart, a 100% probability of change is a 0% probability the rate will stay the same.

Posted in Real Estate News
Sept. 17, 2018

REAL ESTATE AND MORTGAGE RATES - LAST WEEK IN REVIEW AND FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK

MARKET UPDATE

Black Knight reports that in Q2 this year, tappable equity for homeowners with mortgages passed $6 trillion for the first time in history. And this happened even with the recent slowdown in home price growth.

Freddie Mac's chief economist thinks the "spectacular stretch of solid job gains and low unemployment should help keep homebuyer interest elevated. However, mortgage rates will likely also move up."

This doesn't worry the chief economist at a large regional real estate firm, since "low unemployment rates encourage employers to raise wages," which can cover higher loan costs. He also sees "more homes coming on the market."

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

STOCKS REBOUND OFF BOOMING ECONOMY... Stocks returned to their winning ways as investors saw tariff threats as negotiating tactics and focused instead on growth in corporate earnings and the overall economy.

Industrial Production set a new record high, Retail Sales are up a strong 6.6% from a year ago, and Americans' confidence in the U.S. economy and in their own well-being stands near a 14-year high.

Plus, workers are actually doing better than corporations. Since the end of last year, total wages have increased by a $200 billion annual rate, while corporate profits were up by just $100 billion annualized!

The week ended with the Dow UP 0.9%, to 26155; the S&P 500 UP 1.2%, to 2905; and the Nasdaq UP 1.4%, to 8010.

Bond prices dipped for the week after all the good economic data. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended down .34, at $101.11. Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey saw the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate up for the third week in a row. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?... PropertyShark reports 83% of Generation Z (born1995 to 2010) plans to buy a home in the next five years and get this: the 'Instagram Generation' would sacrifice location and commuting distance for size and amenities.

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST

NEW HOMES GOING UP, EXISTING HOMES SELLING... August Housing Starts are expected to shoot past a 1.2 million annual rate. Existing Home Sales should also spring back to a 5.37 million yearly pace.

NOTE: Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and higher loan rates.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... The Fed futures market is dead certain about a rate hike a week from Wednesday, but it sees no moves again until December. Note: In the lower chart, a 100% probability of change is a 0% probability the rate will stay the same.

Posted in Real Estate News
Sept. 10, 2018

REAL ESTATE AND MORTGAGE RATES - LAST WEEK IN REVIEW AND FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK

MARKET UPDATE

Construction spending in July landed a healthy 5.8% above where it was a year ago. In line with this, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) pegged builder confidence at a still high 67.

The NAHB Chairman explained, "builders continue to report strong demand for new housing, fueled by steady job and income growth along with rising household formations."

In Freddie Mac's August Forecast, their chief economist noted, "the good news is that purchase mortgage applications have recently rebounded to above year-ago levels."

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

RALLY ENDS... Wall Street staged an end-of-summer sale, as prices dropped on all three indexes. Some blamed it on trade worries, but the economic data stayed strong, so it could have just been profit taking after the three-week rally.

The red-hot ISM Manufacturing index hit its highest level since 2004, while ISM Services also came in well above expectations. Initial jobless claims fell to 203,000, the fewest since 1969!

August's Employment Report showed 201,000 more jobs. Wages are up 2.9% the past year, their biggest gain yet in the economic recovery. With total hours worked up 2.1%, total cash earnings are up 5.1% from a year ago.

The week ended with the Dow down 0.2%, to 25917; the S&P 500 down 1.0%, to 2872, and the Nasdaq down 2.6%, to 7903.

Friday's strong jobs report sent bonds south for the week. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended down .36, at $101.45. Yet the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased marginally in Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?... Realtor.com reports 80% of homebuyers surveyed were pet owners and 79% said they would pass on a dream home that didn't work for their pets.

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST

INFLATION COOL, RETAIL WARM... Inflation by the Consumer Price Index (CPI)isn't expected to heat up, remaining pretty much within the Fed's target range. Retail Sales, on the other hand, should stay warm, up a nice 0.4% for August.

NOTE: Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Posted in Real Estate News
Sept. 5, 2018

REAL ESTATE AND MORTGAGE RATES - LAST WEEK IN REVIEW AND FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK

MARKET UPDATE

The Pending Home Sales index edged down 0.7% in July, but this was after a 1.0% jump in June. Some economists say these numbers point to a small gain in August existing home sales.

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 0.3% in June. But First American's chief economist feels "price appreciation may be slowing" with "a natural moderation in home prices, rather than a sharp decline."

Freddie Mac's chief economist adds, "the economy and the labor market are very healthy right now, and mortgage rates have stabilized.... These factors should continue to create...an uptick in sales."

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

SETTING MORE RECORDS... The S&P 500 ended above 2900 and the Nasdaq soared past 8,000 for the first time ever. Progress on trade helped, but the big drivers were strong corporate earnings and economic fundamentals.

Need examples? The second read on Q2 GDP moved economic growth up to 4.2%. Or how about Consumer Confidence--now at its highest level in 18 years.

Consumers are no doubt delighted to see their disposable income (income after taxes) up 5.3% from a year ago. That's sent personal spending up 5.2% the past year to help to boost the economy.

The week ended with the Dow UP 0.7%, to 25965; the S&P 500 UP 0.9%, to 2902, and the Nasdaq UP 2.1%, to 8110.

Longer-dated bonds fell as stocks rose. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended down.17, at $101.81. Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey saw the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate barely move up. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?... A mortgage insurance company reports first-time homebuyers now account for 55% of mortgages originated.

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST

MORE FACTORY ACTIVITY, MORE JOBS... U.S. financial markets were closed yesterday for Labor Day, leaving us with a shortened trading week featuring two key economic reports. Manufacturing and employment have shown new strength the past year and that's expected to continue in August's ISM Index of manufacturing and monthly Employment Report.

NOTE: Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... A quarter percent rate hike this month is now a near certainty, with a second one seen for the end of the year. Note: In the lower chart, a 98% probability of change is only a 2% probability the rate will stay the same.

Posted in Real Estate News
Sept. 5, 2018

FOOD, WINE & ART IN THE SIERRA

FOOD, WINE & ART IN THE SIERRA

Labor Day Weekend has come and gone but the fun isn't over. Some of the Sierra's best Food, Wine and Art celebrations are still right around the corner. 

FEATURED HAPPENINGS

September 7- 9

Lake Tahoe Autumn Food & Wine Fest

Northstar California

 

The premier 3-day food and wine event in North Lake Tahoe at Northstar California Resort. Cooking classes, wine tasting, outdoor

adventures, and Sunday's Grand Tasting Finale.

 

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September 8-9

Trails and Vistas Art Hikes

Donner Summit

 

Guided 2.5-3 hour art hikes featuring an

enchanted forest setting on Donner Summit with

installation art, music, poetry, and dance. 

 

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September 15

Sample the Sierra

South Lake Tahoe

 

This event brings together local chefs/restaurants with neighboring growers/producers to turn out scrumptious samples craftily paired with the appropriate wine or brew. 

  

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September 15

Art & Soul Artwalk

Downtown Truckee

 

Join Sierra Sotheby's International Realty as one of 30 stops celebrating local artists. Enjoy live art demonstrations and music while tasting your way through small bites, craft beer and wines.

 

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September 29

Anne Brigman: The Symposium

Nevada Museum of Art

 

Rediscover the life and art of Anne Brigman, whose work in the Sierra in the early 1900s was ground-breaking for its time. 

 

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IN THE NEWS

Rare Ferrari 250 GTO Sells for Record $48.4 Million

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Auction Preview: The Soundtrack of the Swinging 60s

CHRIS SMITH, ALI AND THE BEATLES , 1964. ESTIMATE £10,000–15,000.

 

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Sotheby's International Realty Gives Back with New Story

New Story recently made headlines with the launch of a 3D printer, made possible through the support of the Sotheby's International Realty brand. It is the first permitted 3D printer to build homes in the developing world and is scheduled to start efficiently building safe homes in El Salvador soon.

 

READ MORE>>>

 

Posted in Community News
Sept. 1, 2018

REAL ESTATE AND MORTGAGE RATES - LAST WEEK IN REVIEW AND FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK

MARKET UPDATE

New Home Sales slid 1.7% in July to a 627,000 yearly rate, off for the second straight month. But the housing recovery holds: sales for the first seven months of 2018 are up a healthy 7% over 2017.

Existing Home Sales slipped 0.7% in July to 5.34 million units annually, off now four straight months. But the decline in inventories reversed, coming in unchanged versus a year ago for the first time in 37 months!

Buyers may also be encouraged by the fact that although home prices rose in Q2, they did so at the slowest pace in four years for purchases financed with conventional (FHFA) mortgages.

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

NEW HEIGHTS... The Dow gained a decent 0.5%, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit new highs, as trade and politics took a back seat to Fed Chairman Powell's comments, economic data and strong corporate earnings.

At the Fed's symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Powell said "the current path of gradually raising interest rates" would keep the economy growing without overheating and prevent inflation from overshooting its target range.

One more measure of the strengthening economy is Durable Goods Orders, up 9.2% overall from a year ago. Gains were widespread, though the volatile transportation sector pulled down July's overall read.

The week ended with the Dow UP 0.5%, to 25790; the S&P 500 UP 0.9%, to 2875, and the Nasdaq UP 1.7%, to 7946.

Bonds fell as investors flocked to stocks, but the Fed chair's speech brought prices back up on Friday. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended up .15, to $101.98. In Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell for the third week in a row. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

Posted in Real Estate News
Aug. 31, 2018

MONTHLY NATIONAL HOUSING STATS VIDEO

Here's your monthly National housing stats video. Please feel free to share. Thanks,

Posted in Market Updates